Crisis at the City Ground: How Nottingham Forest went from top-four fight to potentially needing relegation firefighter Sean Dyche to replace sacked Ange Postecoglou

When Forest beat Manchester United 1-0 at the City Ground on April 1, courtesy of an early goal from ex-Red Devils winger Anthony Elanga, they were sat third in the Premier League on 57 points, only four behind second-placed Arsenal and 10 clear of Newcastle, who were just outside the Champions League spots in sixth. With only eight games remaining, Forest's destiny was in their own hands.

But then they completely ran out of steam. Nuno's men only won two of their next seven, with three defeats suffered against Aston Villa, Everton and Brentford, which saw them plummet to seventh. And yet still, they went into the final day knowing that a home win over fourth-placed Chelsea would secure passage to the Champions League.

Unfortunately, they blew their final chance, falling to a 1-0 loss against the Blues in a match desperately shot on quality. Forest put in plenty of effort, but were not inventive enough to break through Chelsea's rear-guard, mustering only two shots on target, with a close-range Lewis Cowill finish proving to be the difference between the two teams.

Considering that Forest had only just preserved their Premier League status on the final day of the 2023-24 campaign, seventh place was a massive achievement, and the City Ground faithful gave Nuno and his players the warm reception they deserved on their lap of honour. But the underlying reasons for their poor form down the finishing stretch were largely glossed over.

GOAL senior writer and die-hard Nottingham Forest supporter Chris Burton was one of the few who saw Forest's decline coming. "Success last season was never sustainable - Chris Wood’s xG, the clean sheets, and counter-attack style," he says. "The wheels started to fall off in the spring, and Forest never really recovered."

Indeed, Wood scored 20 of Forest's 58 Premier League goals last term - the best return of his entire career by far - from just 32 shots on target. The New Zealand international outperformed his expected goals (xG) total of 13.4 by 6.6, with Bryan Mbeumo the only man to beat that number at Brentford (7.7 difference from the same number of goals).

Forest also had more clean sheets than any other team in the league after their win over United (13), but failed to add to that tally in their final eight games, and Wood only scored twice in that period. The main reason for this was opponents cottoning onto Nuno's one-dimensional tactics.

Teams started to cede more possession to Forest instead of pushing them deep, so they were less susceptible to fast breaks. This meant that Forest had larger areas to defend with fewer numbers, and they couldn't get the ball up to Wood in dangerous positions as often. "Nuno stuck to his guns and was found out," Burton adds.

According to The Telegraph, Nuno wanted to adapt Forest's style over the summer to compete with the elite, but was hampered by a lack of urgency from the club's recruitment team. Forest invested £196 million ($23m) in new players, but several important deals were not closed until the end of the transfer window, and he expressed his frustration in front of the media.

"Dealing with doubts is the worst thing you can have in football," he said before Forest's opening game of the new season against Brentford. "Who is going to be [here], when are they [new signings] going to come? All these things create doubts. Our pre-season was very, very bad. We didn't win one game and scored one goal. The players are not supermen, we are going to need to rotate them. That's a major problem with the intensity and demands of the games."

One of Nuno's priority targets was Fulham winger Adama Traore, whom he worked with at Wolves, but the deal was reportedly blocked by Forest's new head of global football, Edu. The Athletic claims that Nuno took a dislike to the former Arsenal sporting director from "their very first conversation". A full-blown internal "war" erupted, and the pair soon stopped speaking entirely.

But it was a battle that Nuno simply could not win, because Edu was a key part of the long-term project being pieced together by Forest's Greek owner Marinakis. 

Edu and Marinakis both took Nuno's public complaints 'personally', and though he lifted the mood behind the scenes by delivering a 3-1 win against Brentford, it was only temporary. Nuno was still unhappy and invited Marinakis' wrath with another stunning outburst in his pre-match press conference ahead of Forest's trip to Crystal Palace. 

"I have always had a very good relationship with the owner, last season was very, very close, almost on a daily basis. Our relationship has changed. It’s not so close," he admitted. "It’s not good, everyone at the club should be together, but it’s not the reality."

Nuno's comments brought back instant memories of when Marinakis appeared to confront his manager on the pitch after Forest's 2-2 draw with Leicester City back in May, which the club later clarified was because of the owner's concern for striker Taiwo Awoniyi, who had played despite picking up an abdominal injury that later required surgery. Any notion of a wider fallout was quashed at the time, and Nuno signed a new three-year contract the following month, but Marinakis started thinking about ripping up that agreement after seeing the manager air his grievances so brazenly. Forest battled to a 1-1 draw against Palace, but by that time, it was already being widely reported that Postecoglou was being lined up to replace Nuno.

A 3-0 defeat against West Ham at the City Ground on August 31 proved to be the final nail in the coffin for Nuno, who was dismissed during the subsequent international break. It was a shocking call considering his status as Forest's most successful manager of the modern era, but an "inevitable" one that fans understood, according to Burton. "Nuno threw his toys out of the pram when he didn't get the targets he wanted and lost some goodwill in the eyes of supporters with his behaviour," he says.

There were a host of other managers linked with the Forest post before Nuno's exit, including two-time Champions League winner Jose Mourinho and Fulham's Marco Silva, who both would have been capable of bringing short-term stability. Instead, Marinakis rolled the dice on Postecoglou.

Nuno was a pragmatic coach who prioritised discipline and organisation over everything else. 'Ange-ball' is a million miles away from that philosophy. Postecoglou demands a ridiculously high defensive line, aggressive pressing and domination of the ball, with a view to breaking through the lines with rapid passing interchanges.

It's an attack-minded formula that has garnered tangible success, most recently at Tottenham, where Postecoglou ended the club's 17-year trophy drought by masterminding their run to Europa League glory. But it also comes with huge risk, because his teams are so vulnerable in the transitional phase. That's why Spurs shipped 68 goals and posted a club record 22 defeats en route to an unforgivable 17th-placed Premier League finish last season, and Postecoglou was rightly dismissed despite delivering silverware.

Marinakis was seemingly blinded by the 60-year-old's CV, which includes league titles in Scotland, Japan and Australia, and overlooked the glaring flaws in his tactical approach. Forest are now paying the price for his tunnel vision, with the team languishing in a far worse position just 39 days after Postecoglou was appointed.

Postecoglou only had one training session with his new squad before his first game at the helm: a return to north London to face Spurs' arch-rivals Arsenal. It was, therefore, no surprise that the Gunners ran out comfortable 3-0 winners, and Postecoglou was quick to promise that better times were just around the corner.

“It won’t be months, it won’t be weeks… It will be Wednesday,” Postecoglou said, looking ahead to the Carabao Cup tie against Swansea. “I cannot afford to waste time. On Wednesday, we will start seeing principles being embedded. It won’t take long and I will not let it take long. I will make sure we turn it around because we have an unbelievable opportunity to make an impact.”

Forest made good on Postecoglou's vow for the first 60 minutes at the Swansea.com Stadium. The visitors scored two superb team goals in the first half, both finished off by Jesus, and Swansea had no answer to their slick build-up play. Arsenal loanee Oleksandr Zinchenko and Nicolo Savona shifted from full-backs to midfielders in possession, giving another summer signing, Douglas Luiz, license to bomb forward and create chances, which continued to flood in during the early stages of the second half.

Jair Cunha missed the best of them, only for Swansea to launch a swift counter and eventually win a corner. Cameron Burgess rose highest to head home the resulting delivery, and the momentum of the contest completely changed. Zan Vipotnik equalised in the 92nd minute, and Burgess grabbed his second to clinch the tie with seconds left on the clock.

It was the kind of collapse that Tottenham fans got used to under Postecoglou last season. Spurs took the lead in 22 Premier League games, but only won 11, alongside seven losses and four defeats. Postecoglou brings fluid, entertaining football, but no control. His teams can implode at any moment. 

Forest also blew leads in their next two matches, playing out a 1-1 stalemate with newly-promoted Burnley at Turf Moor before the draw against Betis. But Postecoglou took plenty of encouragement from those outings, and was especially pleased with the flowing move that led to Jesus' scoring Forest's first goal in Spain as he told reporters: "I know I’m out of step with those kind of things, but I still see beauty in that, I love my teams to play that kind of football. I think the moments when they’re constructed like that are things that make our game so beautiful and I loved it."

Postecoglou added on getting his ideas across to a new squad: "Some of the football we played was outstanding and this group of players have been really receptive to what we’re trying to do. I guess the challenge now is to make sure the players don’t drop their heads at all because we’re not getting the victories."

It's fair to say that he has since failed to complete that challenge. Forest suffered a major hangover from their European exertions, with Sunderland picking up a hard-fought 1-0 win at the City Ground three days later, and Postecoglou's side then followed up the surprise loss to Midtjylland with a 2-0 reversal at Newcastle.

Against Sunderland and Midtjylland, it was the same old story: too many defensive mistakes and no clinical edge in front of goal. Newcastle, meanwhile, forced Forest to play their game, and there was a significant dip in collective application levels. That's what happens when confidence starts to plummet.

Postecoglou was in serious trouble even before the Chelsea game. Indeed, he's the first Forest boss since 1925 not to win any of his opening seven fixtures but remained in typically bullish mood before Saturday's game. "It is a struggle, it is a fight, there is nothing wrong with that," he told Sky Sports after the final whistle at St James' Park. "I could have been sat on the couch watching you guys, but I prefer to be here right in the middle of it, where I can have an effect and I believe I will."

But sitting on the couch is exactly where Postecoglou finds himself now. The Telegraph reported that Marinakis was already considering wielding the axe on a manager for the second time this season, and he rather brutally went through with it just moments after watching his side dismally lose 3-0 to Chelsea. So what next? The answer could well be Sean Dyche, who has emerged as the front-runner to take over the reins.

Silva is also now under serious consideration, but it would take a significant compensation package to prise him away from Fulham. Dyche is a free agent, having been out of work since his sacking at Everton in January, and has strong ties to Forest as a former youth player in the Brian Clough era.

Dyche, who lives in Nottingham and regularly attends home games, would bring two Forest cult heroes with him if he were appointed, in the form of Ian Woan and Steve Stone, both of whom have been long-term members of the former Burnley and Everton manager's coaching staff. He is also an accomplished man-manager who has a good track record of getting the best out of struggling players.

Burnley achieved two Premier League promotions on Dyche's watch and finished seventh in the top flight in 2017-18 to qualify for Europe for the first time in 51 years. The no-nonsense Englishman also kept Everton afloat during an extremely turbulent time that included points deductions and a change in ownership.

Dyche's brand is not as easy on the eye as Postecoglou's, but he'd give Forest the same solid base they had under Nuno. Marinakis clearly didn't think sticking with Postecoglou was going to get his side out of trouble, and thus he acted fast and without emotion. The hope will be that an improvement in form under a new manager will not only help improve the club's league position, but also convince key players, such as Elliott Anderson, Morgan Gibbs-White and Murillo, that they should stay put, with all of them generating interest from Europe's biggest sides.

The defeat to Chelsea and ensuing dismissal of Postecoglou has created the mother of all Forest fires. Dyche may be the perfect man to put it out.