Sir Alex Ferguson led Aberdeen to the league title in 1985. No teams outside the Old Firm have won it since. 40 years later, that could finally change.
| Scottish Premiership Outright Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Hearts | 23/20 |
| Celtic | 7/4 |
| Rangers | 10/3 |
| Motherwell | 20/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
A Hearty comeback
The Scottish Premiership has not seen a title race this competitive in a very long time. With only nine matches left to play, a mere 10 points separate the top four teams in the division. Unlikely league leaders Hearts are currently leading the table with 63 points. Celtic follow them on 58 points, while Rangers trail them by one point. Motherwell, who many dismissed before the season began, are behind the two Glasgow giants with 53 points.
Since Aberdeen lifted the trophy in the 1984/85 season, the Old Firm have won every single top-flight title. In fact, Celtic have claimed victory in 13 of the last 14 seasons. This duopoly has seemed impossible to break, yet the 2025/26 season is proving to be full of surprises.
Rangers sacked Russell Martin following their poorest start to a league season since 1978. At one stage, they were 13 points behind Hearts and went through four different managers in 2025 alone. Similarly, Celtic moved on from both Brendan Rodgers and his successor, Wilfried Nancy. They have since brought back Martin O’Neill for a second stint as interim manager.
While the Glasgow giants were busy changing managers, Hearts were busy winning. Derek McInnes’ side have only lost four of their 29 league matches. They have also managed to beat both Rangers and Celtic, both at home and away. This is a feat no Hearts team has achieved since they were last league winners in 1960.
The statistics tell an interesting story. Hearts rank fifth in the league for expected goals (xG) from open play, suggesting they are overperforming their data. However, their expected goals against (xGA) value of 33.00 is the best in the league. While they do not create the most opportunities, they are excellent at preventing their opponents from scoring.
Celtic boast the highest xG in the division at 79.69 and have scored a league-high 53 goals. However, their form has been quite inconsistent. O’Neill’s side relied on goals in extra time to beat three of the bottom four teams just last month. Furthermore, they suffered a 3-1 loss to St Mirren in the Scottish League Cup playoff final back in December.
Meanwhile, Rangers have drawn 12 of their 29 league games, which is the joint-highest total in the top flight. Although they have only lost twice this season, those shared points have slowed their progress. Danny Rohl has improved the team significantly since his arrival, but the damage from their poor start might be too much to overcome.
Motherwell are the surprise contenders this year. Jens Berthel Askou’s side have conceded the fewest goals in the league, with only 20 goals going past them. With 15 clean sheets, their defensive record is better than any other team in Scotland or the top European leagues. They have lost only one of their last 10 league games, which was a 2-1 defeat to Dundee FC in their most recent match.
The upcoming league split adds more pressure to the race. After 33 matches, the league will divide into a top six and a bottom six, with teams playing each other once more. There are four games left before the split, followed by five more. The margins could not be finer.
Could the power balance in Scotland finally shift?
The offensive statistics show just how close this competition is. Celtic, Hearts, and Rangers have scored 53, 52, and 51 goals, respectively. Only a single goal separates these three teams after 29 matches. Motherwell, supported by the best defence in the league, remain close behind despite scoring fewer goals.
Hearts have been at the top of the Premiership for 22 weeks and currently hold a five-point lead. Their schedule before the split seems promising, as three of their next four opponents are currently in the bottom six. The Gorgie Boys will then face Motherwell in round 33.
McInnes’ side have the league’s second-best defensive record, conceding only 24 goals, and have lost the joint second-fewest matches (4). They have also committed the fewest fouls (319) and are the only team in the league that has not conceded a penalty this season. Their success is built on discipline and strong organisation.
In Glasgow, Celtic are trying to win their fifth consecutive title. They lead the league in $xG$ and total goals. Since returning in January, Martin O’Neill has averaged 2.5 points per game, the best record of any manager in the top four.
The Bhoys face a difficult run of fixtures before the split. They play Motherwell first, followed by two away games against Dundee FC and Dundee United. Finally, they host St Mirren, who recently defeated them 3-1 in the Scottish League Cup playoff final.
Meanwhile, at the blue end of Glasgow, no team has tasted fewer defeats than Rangers’ two. Danny Rohl has led a great comeback, moving the team from 13 points behind into title contention. They are currently the most in-form side in Scotland, with a 10-match unbeaten streak.
However, draws remain their biggest concern. Their 12 draws in 29 matches is the joint-highest in the league, equal to Dundee United. They have lost ground recently by drawing three of their last four games, including a 2-2 result against Celtic at Ibrox Stadium.
Finally, Jens Berthel Askou’s side is a long-shot choice for bettors. Motherwell, whose only title win came in 1932, began the season as 1000/1 rank outsiders. Despite that, they are only 10 points behind the leaders and have lost just one of their last 10 outings.
They have lost only four matches all season, the fewest in the league alongside Hearts. However, their final four matches before the split are very difficult as they play all top-six teams. They travel to Celtic Park first, then face Hibernian and Falkirk before visiting Hearts at Tynecastle Park in round 33. While a 10-point gap is significant, it could close quickly if they beat both Hearts and Celtic.
The odds for all four teams are generous because the outcome is uncertain. The Old Firm’s 40 year dominance is currently under serious threat.