Are the Magpies the value pick for a top-five finish right now or should we focus on Palace, Villa, Brighton or Bournemouth?
| 25/26 EPL top-five finish market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 7/2 |
| Crystal Palace | 4/1 |
| Bournemouth | 4/1 |
| Aston Villa | 4/1 |
| Newcastle United | 4/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
City win could be a springboard for Magpies
It’s taken a while for Newcastle to cope with the loss of Alexander Isak to Liverpool. The Magpies barely average one goal scored per game. Nevertheless, they are starting to show signs of life in the EPL.
Impressive victories over Tottenham and Manchester City were sandwiched between consecutive defeats to Brentford and West Ham. They appear to have regrouped over the November international break.
The gap between them and the fifth and final Champions League spot is now just five points. This raises the question: is it time to consider backing Newcastle in the top-five finish market?
A lot rests on the shoulders of two key players in this Newcastle squad. Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall have evolved into indispensable members of Howe’s team. Keeping this duo fit and firing between now and May will be pivotal to their chances of back-to-back Champions League campaigns.
Livramento is a progressive, ball-playing full-back. He’s made 25 progressive passes so far this season. His energy up and down the flank is vital to how Newcastle play.
He’s received 41 progressive passes in just seven games, compared with 40 received by Kieran Trippier in two more games. This proves just how influential Livramento has become to the Magpies’ build-up play.
Left-back, Lewis Hall, is equally pivotal to Newcastle’s attacking output. He completed more take-ons (2) than any other Magpie player in the first half of their win over Manchester City.
In addition, Hall also registered more touches (34) and tackles (2) than any other Newcastle player. His combative style is the perfect balance to Livramento’s more stylish, considered approach on the opposite flank.
Newcastle’s injury situation seems to be improving. Anthony Gordon is set to return imminently. Summer signing Yoane Wissa is also scheduled for a return in early December. This will further improve Newcastle’s attacking options.
Their upcoming fixture schedule looks kind too. They travel to Everton this weekend, followed by home games with Spurs and Burnley.
Then there’s the small matter of a Tyne and Wear derby at Sunderland. If they can pick up eight to ten points over these next four games, they could be back in the Champions League fight.
Palace, Bournemouth and Villa to challenge
Crystal Palace are currently in the driving seat. The Eagles are fourth in OPTA’s xPTS table. Oliver Glasner’s men also have the fourth-highest xG in the division, with 20.56 points.
They’ve also conceded the third-lowest number of attempts on target (36) behind only Chelsea (33) and Arsenal (23). This suggests their current league position is no fluke.
AFC Bournemouth are close behind, just one point behind Palace in eighth place. The Cherries are the joint-fifth top scorers in the EPL. They underperformed last season based on Opta Analyst’s xG data. Andoni Iraola’s men eventually came ninth but should’ve finished sixth.
Brighton currently sit eighth in the xG table for the 25/26 EPL season. Fabian Hurzeler’s Seagulls sit sixth in the table, just one place behind their arch-rivals Palace. Albion also have some winnable games ahead against Forest, West Ham and Sunderland between now and Christmas.
Finally, Aston Villa seem to have rediscovered their form after a sluggish start to the season. Unai Emery’s men have won six of their last seven EPL games. They thrashed Bournemouth 4-0 ahead of the November international break. Then they came from behind to win at Leeds.
Despite this upturn in fortunes, question marks remain about the sustainability of Villa’s form. They currently sit third bottom of the xG table, with only 10.94 xG.