What has fueled Brentford’s away revival and is it enough to clinch a top six finish or fight for the FA Cup?
| Brentford Outright Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Top 5 Finish | 8/1 |
| Top 6 Finish | 10/3 |
| Top Half Finish | 1/12 |
| FA Cup Winner | 16/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
What is the cause of the Bees’ improved away form?
At the start of the 2025/26 Premier League season, the Bees suffered defeat in seven of their opening eight away fixtures. However, there has been a significant shift in their fortunes away from the Gtech Community Stadium since the Christmas period.
It began with a 2-0 win against bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton Wanderers, which seemed to halt their decline. They followed that result with a dominant 4-2 victory at Everton.
Despite a loss to West London rivals Chelsea, the Bees secured major wins at Aston Villa and Newcastle. Notably, both of those opponents had been in excellent form in front of their own fans this season.
Defensively speaking, Keith Andrews has considerably bolstered the Brentford defence. In their first six away matches, they conceded an average expected goals against (xGA) of 1.77 per game. In their last seven away games, that average has dropped to only 1.13 xGA.
By limiting the number of high-quality opportunities for their opponents, they are displaying a more solid defensive shape. Their pressing triggers have also become more successful.
The Bees have become far more efficient in transition as well. The win at Aston Villa with ten men for the entire second half, while limiting Villa to 0.8 xGA, is further evidence of this.
They have also seen a great increase in their attacking statistics. Their average number of shots on target per away match has nearly doubled. It stood at just 2.67 per game during their first six away trips but has since risen to 4.43.
This has naturally impacted their xG, which has risen from 1.12 in their opening six away matches to 1.49. Their xG now clearly exceeds their xGA, making their improved results on the road no surprise.
While their xG increased by 33%, the number of goals they actually scored away from home surged by 199% across the same period. This reflects a more clinical forward line, supported by Igor Thiago's exceptional form.
Given Brentford’s prowess from attacking set-plays, this also highlights a weakness in the xG model. Such models often undervalue second balls from set-plays and low-block breaks.
How does their fixture list look between now and May?
Keith Andrews and the Brentford fans will certainly be eager to qualify for Europe. With the threat of relegation gone, they can approach every remaining game as a free hit.
Their schedule until May appears relatively favourable. In fact, they are likely to be pre-match underdogs in only three of their last nine fixtures in 25/26.
Their next league encounter is at home to Wolves, who sit at the bottom of the table. Rob Edwards’ Gold and Blacks average just 0.27 points per game away from Molineux. Meanwhile, Brentford boast a 50% win rate at home.
They then visit a Leeds United team that are still worried about the relegation zone. Daniel Farke’s players may become anxious as the threat of the Championship looms closer.
That trip is followed by consecutive home games against Everton and a west London derby with Fulham. Those matches could decide if they are genuine top-six contenders or if they will finish in the top half of the table.
Two away games against both Manchester clubs are split by another home London derby against West Ham, who are fighting relegation.
Their final home game of 2025/26 is against Crystal Palace, who will likely have little to play for by then. Their season concludes with a trip to Liverpool, which might turn into a direct battle for a Europa League or Conference League place.
Keith Andrews could still win a domestic trophy in his first season in charge. The Bees face West Ham in the FA Cup fifth round this weekend.
A long cup run is likely the last thing the Hammers want, as Premier League survival is their main priority despite a recent upturn in form.
With nothing to lose, Andrews is expected to name a full-strength team at the London Stadium. They have fond memories of East London, having won 2-0 there back in October.
A win over Nuno Espirito Santo’s team would put Brentford just one victory away from a semi-final at Wembley. Lower-league teams like Norwich, Wrexham, Mansfield, and Port Vale remain in the draw.
It’s possible that at least one of these teams progress and are drawn to face the Bees in the last eight. Brentford’s current 6.25% probability of lifting the FA Cup for the first time would surely rise at this stage.