The lack of cup distractions could be good news for new interim boss Michael Carrick. However, he has two tough games first up.
| Manchester United outright market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Man Utd or draw vs Man City | 4/5 |
| Arsenal vs Man Utd - BTTS - No | 19/20 |
| Man Utd to finish in the top six | 11/8 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
How might Carrick shake things up?
While there have been improvements this season, Ruben Amorim’s reign ultimately ended in disappointing fashion. He will likely be best remembered for a stubborn insistence on setting up with a back three. Despite briefly shifting to a 4-2-3-1 system, he reverted to his regular 3-4-3 in his last match against Leeds.
Carrick’s appointment will almost certainly mark the end of Man Utd playing with three centre-backs. The ex-Middlesbrough boss almost exclusively used a 4-2-3-1 formation during his time at the Riverside. He’s expected to do likewise in his new role, which will run until the end of the season.
That should be the most obvious shift in what’s set to be a slightly more pragmatic period. Carrick will prioritise defensive stability from a side that have conceded 32 times so far this term. That’s the seventh-worst record in the Premier League.
In terms of personnel, radical changes are not expected. As an interim appointment, his role is largely to steady the ship. We can therefore expect him to keep faith with most of United’s senior players.
The new man will have more players to pick from than Amorim did in his final weeks in the job. The Africa Cup of Nations put a real strain on his squad. However, Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo have now returned after their teams were eliminated in the quarter-finals.
Man Utd’s defensive selection issues are also easing. Harry Maguire is available again, Matthijs de Ligt is close to fitness, while Noussair Mazraoui will return from AFCON duty next week. That should aid Carrick’s bid to tighten up the backline.
Lack of cup distractions to aid a top-six push
It’s a real baptism of fire for the former midfielder. His first game is the derby against Man City, and that’s followed by a trip to leaders Arsenal.
Man Utd do have a reasonably good recent record against their neighbours. They’ve only lost one of the last five meetings, excluding penalty shootouts.
Pep Guardiola has got a defensive injury crisis of his own to deal with heading into the derby. John Stones, Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol are all set to miss it. Bettors expecting a new-manager bounce can back United to avoid defeat with an implied probability of 54.6%.
Carrick’s anticipated pragmatism should then come into full force at the Emirates. Backing both teams to score has been profitable in nine of the last 10 Man Utd matches. However, betting on a reversal of that trend could offer value against Arsenal and beyond.
The Gunners’ last home game produced just 0.9 xG in total against Liverpool. They’ve let in just 0.44 goals per game on average at home in all competitions this term. Backing at least one team to fire blanks when they host United seems to be a smart move.
Securing at least one positive result from his opening two games will give Carrick a foundation to build on. With only Premier League fixtures left to play, United could have a considerable advantage on their rivals in the top-six race.
They are currently in seventh place, sandwiched between Newcastle and Chelsea. Those clubs are still involved in three different cup competitions. That will see them play twice per week for the rest of January, and potentially all of February.
With summer signings Benjamin Sesko and Matheus Cunha also improving, United are the value bet in the top-six finish market.