One of Liverpool and Brighton and one of Aston Villa and Newcastle will be dropped from the last 32. Who are the current favourites to back outright?
| 2025/26 FA Cup Winner Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Man City | 7/2 |
| Arsenal | 9/2 |
| Liverpool | 6/1 |
| Chelsea | 7/1 |
| Aston Villa | 10/1 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Are Manchester City fair outright favourites?
Pep Guardiola could not have been happier with his side’s 4th-round draw in the FA Cup. After dominating League One outfit Exeter City 10-1 in the 3rd round, they are guaranteed to face League Two opposition in the last 32.
Manchester neighbours Salford face off against Swindon for a place in round four. City played against Salford before. They were drawn against them in the FA Cup last season, when City ran riot, as they won 8-0. Therefore, Karl Robinson’s men wouldn’t be thrilled about travelling to the Etihad twice in successive years.
Salford sit fourth in League Two, with City’s other potential opponents, Swindon Town, who occupy second place. Either side would pose few issues for City, even if Guardiola chooses to rotate his lineup. With a safe passage into the last 16 almost secured and several EPL sides guaranteed to be eliminated, City are in a favourable position.
As a result, they are one of the safest teams to back outright at this stage of the competition.
Do the Gunners have what it takes to push for a domestic treble?
Arsenal have also been given a fortunate home draw in the FA Cup 4th round against League One outfit Wigan Athletic. The Latics are still looking over their shoulder at the League One relegation zone in 15th place.
Although Arsenal will be backing themselves to win this tie, they are set to play eight matches across different leagues in less than a month.
Even with injury concerns still lingering at both ends of the pitch for Arteta, it would be surprising if the Gunners were to lose to Wigan. However, they may not have the motivation or squad depth to run deep and reach Wembley in May. Winning their first Premier League title in over two decades is likely their main goal.
Can Liverpool save their season with a deep FA Cup run?
After a promising start to the 2025/26 EPL season, Liverpool’s drop-off in form was stark. Arne Slot’s job was at risk, but the Reds have regained their momentum lately. They are now back in the top four, but sit 14 points adrift of leaders Arsenal.
Slot’s men are focused on finishing inside the top eight of the UCL League Phase. They currently sit ninth on goal difference. Liverpool play one game less than Arsenal between now and their FA Cup 4th round tie at home to Brighton.
Albion have averaged just 0.91 points per away game in the EPL this season. It’s a marked drop-off compared with their 1.90 points return from home fixtures. This suggests the Reds will have a decent chance of moving into the last 16.
With Liverpool out of the EFL Cup and the EPL title beyond them, Slot will aim to clinch the Champions League and FA Cup titles. Liverpool can be backed to lift the FA Cup at a probability of just 14.29%. However, this seems undervalued compared with Arsenal’s probability (18.18%), since the Reds’ schedule is less congested.
Will Chelsea have bigger fish to fry than winning the FA Cup?
Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea moved into the 4th round of the FA Cup with a comfortable win at Charlton. The number-one priority for the club’s US owners is to go deep in this season’s Champions League. Also, they’ll want to ensure qualification for the UCL in 2026/27. The Blues currently sit four places and four points shy of fourth-placed Liverpool in the EPL.
Rosenior will be tasked with bridging that gap over the coming weeks, as Chelsea still have a chance to finish inside the top eight of the UCL League Phase. Positive results over Pafos and Napoli could be enough to move directly to the last 16.
Between now and Chelsea’s trip to Championship playoff hopefuls, Hull City, the Blues play eight matches in less than a month. As with Arsenal, they will surely need to rotate heavily for the trip to East Yorkshire. Hull have won more than half of their home games in the Championship this season, so they will be difficult opponents. It also marks Rosenior's return to a club he used to manage.
Could Aston Villa be serious FA Cup contenders if they get past Newcastle?
One of the genuine value picks to lift this year’s FA Cup could be Aston Villa. Unai Emery’s men sit third in the Premier League, with the same number of points as an in-form Manchester City.
The betting markets suggest they have only a 9.09% chance of lifting the FA Cup for the first time since 1957. They have been drawn against Newcastle in the 4th round, with the tie to be played crucially at Villa Park. Newcastle have averaged just 0.90 points per game away from Tyneside in the EPL this season.
With Tino Livramento suffering another two-month injury lay-off, and the Magpies still suffering from availability issues elsewhere. Villa will fancy their chances of brushing Newcastle aside to move within three wins of the FA Cup final.