How often do Premier League favourites win? Match betting odds versus results reality

Sergio Aguero Manchester City 2019-20
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Creating an accumulator full of low-odds selections is one of the most popular betting techniques amongst casual punters - but are they worth it?

The Premier League is one of the most popular divisions amongst bettors, with punters all around the world relishing the opportunity to wager on it.

Many bettors place accumulators in an attempt to win big money from a low stake – but how successful are they and how often do the favourites win?

The more selections that are added to an accumulator, the higher the odds will be but also the less chance it has of paying out.

How often do Premier League favourites win?

The number of favourites who win varies per weekend, especially with not every favourite being odds-on, but the figure is usually around six out of 10.

For instance, Sheffield United kicked off the weekend beginning January 10 with a 1-0 win over West Ham as 9/10 (1.90) favourites with Manchester United, priced at 1/3 (1.33) also victorious a day later.

Everton (9/10), Chelsea (3/10) and Liverpool (4/6) took maximum points from their matches as well, before 3/25 (1.12) Manchester City won on Sunday. Putting those six favourites into an accumulator would have paid out at just over 21/2 (10.5).

Backing Man City as a single at 3/25 (1.12) - whilst an ill-advised bet due to the short odds - has an 89 per cent of coming in whilst the 9/10 (1.90) on Sheffield United comes out at 52.6%.

However, putting all six of those favourites into an acca implies just an 8.6 per cent chance of it landing and obviously would have required the punters to not have any other selections in there.

This general trend also holds true for other weekends this season. The 10 matches played across New Year's Day and January 2 featured five favourites winning, including Leicester (4/5), Liverpool (1/4) and Man City (2/7).

The matchday prior to that, played on December 28-29, actually saw eight favourites justify their odds but the traditional Boxing Day fixtures - including one on December 27 - featured six favourites taking all three points.

How often do Premier League favourites lose or draw?

With around six favourites winning each week, then around four favourites will either lose or draw.

Leicester City have been the surprise package this season but recently lost to Southampton despite being just 7/10 (1.70) with bet365, the same weekend that 4/9 (1.44) Wolves and 3/4 (1.75) Arsenal also let punters down.

Bournemouth also failed to beat Watford, albeit the Cherries were 6/4 (2.50) so cannot be considered heavy favourites. That being said, backing all 10 favourites to win would have been a losing 124/1 (125.0) acca - an implied 0.8% chance of landing.

The New Year's Day fixtures featured five favourites failing to win, including odds-on favourites Tottenham, Chelsea and Burnley.

Interestingly, Spurs were also odds-on in their previous match but were one of two favourites not to win in that gameweek, along with 9/10 (1.90) Crystal Palace.

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.

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