Why Man City can’t be ‘relegated to League Two’ in FFP case but Premier League can ‘effectively guarantee’ demotion out of the top-flight

The reigning champions of England are yet to discover their fate in a long-running Financial Fair Play saga that still sees at least 115 charges hanging over the club. An independent hearing has been concluded, but no verdict has been delivered.

That is keeping the rumour mill ticking over, with points deductions and transfer embargoes still being discussed at length by those that believe City will need to be stung with harsh punishments if they are found guilty of breaking monetary regulations.

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire has told the Manchester Evening News of the situation as things stand: “What I've heard from a few parties already, and I've spoken to a few people, is that it could be that there will be conclusion as to whether Manchester City are guilty or not guilty of individual charges. But the punishment might not be included in this initial report.

“I think that, in my personal view, is that it creates more problems than solutions. It will just lead to a social media meltdown. It will create expectations. If Manchester City are only found guilty of non-cooperation with the Premier League investigation and I think we can expect something in line with what we saw from UEFA. In that it will be a fiscal penalty.

“If Manchester City are found guilty of misrepresentation, which is effectively corporate fraud, then I think we have to be looking at a significant points deduction. On the basis that, again, if you read the commission reports for Nottingham Forest and Everton, they stressed that they were minor breaches of the rules. What Manchester City is being accused of, is effectively fraud over a longer period of time. So therefore, the punishment has to be scaled appropriately.”

There has been talk of City being dropped into the EFL, but Maguire went on to explain why the Blues cannot be treated in a similar manner to Scottish giants Rangers – who tumbled down the divisions on the back of entering administration in 2012: “I don't think they can relegate the club as such, because this is a Premier League punishment.

“The Premier League doesn't control the EFL, so therefore the commission would have to set a tariff - a punishment that will be so severe in terms of points deductions that it would effectively guarantee relegation. But they can't do what we saw with Rangers and the SPFL and relegate them to League Two or similar.”

While City cannot be automatically dumped out of the Premier League, a huge points penalty would leave them in serious danger of slipping through a relegation trapdoor and into the Championship. Pep Guardiola’s side are currently 31 points clear of the drop zone with nine games left to take in this season.