Our betting expert expects a tight game in Vallecas to open up after the break and potentially end in a draw.
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Betting Predictions
Odds courtesy of bet365, correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
- Rayo Vallecano to win or draw @ 8/5 with bet365
- Under 2.5 goals @ 13/10 with bet365
- Half with most goals - 2nd half @ 1/1 with bet365
A tough trip to Vallecas for Los Blancos
Rayo Vallecano have specialised in taking points off the bigger clubs since their return to La Liga in 2021. They’ve drawn three of their last four matches against Real Madrid, while they’re unbeaten in three at home to their big city neighbours. Rayo have also frequently troubled Barcelona, who could only draw in Vallecas earlier this term.
This has the potential to be another tough afternoon for the visitors. While they’ve had two more days to recover following their European game, Rayo rested most of their regulars in the Conference League. They’re likely to make eight or more changes here, which should allow them to play in their usual high-intensity way.
Real Madrid found it difficult to cope with that style of play at Liverpool earlier in the week. They only created 0.5 xG and had just two shots on target in the 90 minutes.
- Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction 1: Rayo Vallecano to win or draw @ 8/5 with bet365
A tight game likely
Rayo do take risks, but their ability to win the ball back high up the pitch also takes the pressure off their defence. They kept clean sheets in all of their league games in October. Meanwhile, all four of their home fixtures in La Liga this term have served up under 2.5 goals in total.
Real Madrid have been inconsistent in terms of their attacking threat. They were excellent last weekend against a poor Valencia side. However, they only managed a hard-fought 1-0 win in their last away game in La Liga, against Getafe.
Arda Guler has been their most influential creative force, with five assists and 2.5 key passes per game in the Spanish top flight. However, as Liverpool showed in midweek, when opposing teams manage to keep him quiet, the service to Real Madrid’s dangerous forward line gets significantly reduced.
- Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction 2: Under 2.5 goals @ 13/10 with bet365
More action after the break
Most of the few goals in Rayo’s home games have typically come after the break. Notably, 83% of the goals scored at the Estadio Vallecas in this season’s La Liga have come in the second half. The exception was a controversial Lamine Yamal penalty for Barcelona in August, which was awarded when technical problems with VAR prevented a review.
Rayo largely bossed the second half of that match and fought back to draw. Overall, 50% of their goals in the league have come after the 60th minute. They also netted twice after the 80th minute and turned defeat into victory in Europe this week.
There have also been slightly more goals in the second half of Real Madrid’s away league fixtures. 75% of the goals they’ve conceded on the road in all competitions have come after the interval.
- Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction 3: Half with most goals - 2nd half @ 1/1 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Real Madrid were having an almost perfect season, winning 13 out of 14 in all competitions before their midweek trip to Liverpool. However, a poor display in a 1-0 defeat at Anfield in the Champions League has raised plenty of questions for Xabi Alonso. They still lead La Liga by five points heading into Matchday 12.
As for Rayo Vallecano, they came from 2-0 down to beat Lech Poznan 3-2 in the Conference League on Thursday. They’ve also won three of their last four league games to nil, but were well beaten at Villarreal last weekend.
Predicted lineups for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano expected lineup: Batalla, Chavarria, Mendy, Lejeune, Ratiu, Diaz, Lopez, Garcia, Palazon, De Frutos, Alemao
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Huijsen, Militao, Alexander-Arnold, Camavinga, Guler, Vinicius, Bellingham, Valverde, Mbappe