Premier League relegation odds: The team to back outside the bottom three

Wolves and Burnley still appear destined for relegation. However, a West Ham revival is not out of the question ahead of some favourable fixtures.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Burnley

The 2025/26 Premier League season continues to deliver surprises, and last weekend was a remarkable one. While the top four clubs picked up a grand total of just two points, none of the bottom six lost. Even Wolves and Burnley picked up creditable results in tough fixtures.

Given they have only eight points on the board, it’s still impossible to see any way an improving Wolves can escape relegation. With 14 points, Burnley have a tiny glimmer of hope, but it amounts to little more than that.

The Clarets have now gone 13 league matches without a victory. Their only victories this season have come against fellow promoted sides and Wolves.

The underlying data also suggests bettors should be cautious about reading too much into Burnley's recent draws against Man Utd and Liverpool. They lost the xG count by a margin of 2.5-0.2 against United and 3.2-0.4 against Liverpool. Even at long odds, there is no reason to think they are worth backing to stay up.

West Ham

West Ham’s 2-1 win at Tottenham on Saturday was one of the most significant results of the season at the bottom. It came out of the blue, with the Hammers on a 10-game winless run in the league prior to that. Defeats against relegation rivals Wolves and Nottingham Forest in their previous outings appeared to all but seal their fate.

While Nuno Espirito Santo did make an initial impact at the London Stadium, he struggled to sustain his early success. With weaknesses across the defence, the Portuguese boss has struggled to plug the gaps at the back. The Londoners have still only kept one clean sheet all season, which ironically came under Graham Potter against Nuno’s Forest.

The next fortnight will be vital in determining whether West Ham have a shot at safety. They appear set to lose Brazilian star Lucas Paqueta and will need to make some smart signings before the window shuts. Anyone that comes in will need to be ready to make an instant impact.

West Ham also face two fixtures that are virtually a must-win. First, they host a Sunderland side that have collected just three points from their last six away games. They also travel to Burnley at the start of February.

Overall, there seem to be too many problems in this West Ham side that could feasibly be fixed in the short term. The betting markets reflect their current form.

Nottingham Forest

One of the problems for West Ham — and the two teams below them — is the lack of other relegation candidates. Bournemouth, in 15th place, are currently 10 points above the relegation zone. Even with the damaging January departure of Antoine Semenyo, they should comfortably secure safety.

That leaves Nottingham Forest and Leeds as the only other vulnerable clubs. Of those two, Forest appear more at risk.

The East Midlands club have collected only four points from their last six games. Their initial revival under Sean Dyche now feels like a distant memory, with some of their early-season issues returning.

The main problem is a lack of goals. Earlier this month, Dyche declined to comment on when key striker Chris Wood might return. That suggests the injured Kiwi is still a long way from coming back from knee surgery.

Wood’s replacement, Igor Jesus, has scored just once in 21 Premier League appearances. That is putting a real strain on Forest’s midfield and wide players to chip in with goals. Those issues suggest they offer value in the relegation market, with an implied probability of 14.3%.

Leeds

While Leeds are not completely out of danger, things look much brighter for them. They’re a good example of just how much difference a confident striker can make at the bottom of the Premier League.

The Whites have caused problems for opposing defences all season, particularly at home. They rank eighth in the English top flight for xG (35.9) and sixth for home xG (21.3). That places them comfortably ahead of high-flying Aston Villa, not to mention all of their relegation rivals.

However, it’s only over the past two months that they have been consistently converting chances. Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s six-game scoring streak at the end of 2025 was the catalyst for their climb away from danger. Lukas Nmecha has also provided good support, and he registered a late winner against Fulham on Saturday.

That moved the Whites eight points clear of the relegation zone. Their impressive average of 1.73 points per home game strongly suggests Daniel Farke’s side will stay up from this position.