2025/26 feels like a stark change from recent Premier League seasons. There is a promoted side thriving and a struggling champion.
However, the new football season has brought about a new style of football — or rather, the return of an older style of football. Set pieces, long throws and counter attacks are on the rise in the Premier League. It’s the end of an era stylistically and it looks as if it has changed a five-year long trend.
In the four seasons leading up to this one, the average number of cards in Premier League games had been steadily climbing.
The explanation behind the increasing number of cards is complex and includes the introduction of VAR and the influence of Pep Guardiola. There’s also time to discuss the latest PGMOL directive issued by the chief refereeing officer, Howard Webb, that may have affected this season.
A new era for the Premier League?
It’s hard to read about the Premier League this season without a mention of a set piece. It’s well founded. Last season, no team averaged more than a set piece goal every other game. Nottingham Forest led the way with 17 from 38 games, averaging out to 0.4 set piece goals per game. This season, seven different teams are surpassing that figure, with at least 0.5 set piece goals per game.
However, this stylistic change has led to a marked drop in the number of cards being awarded. The average number of cards per match in 2025/26 stands at 3.81, the lowest for three seasons.
After a high of 4.53 cards per match in the 2023/24 season, the figure dropped to 4.34 last campaign. In 2025/26, that trend has accelerated. Cards have fallen to 3.81. The average number of cards per match between 2015/16 and 2021/22 stands at 3.56. We’re returning to what was once the norm.
Does this represent the start of a new era for the Premier League? The stylistic changes in Premier League football are already affecting other statistics, such as goal totals. Cards have also been affected by this change.
Notably, 10 of the 17 teams that have featured in each of the last two Premier League seasons have seen their average card numbers drop. Leaders Arsenal have dropped from 2.03 cards on average per match last season to just 1.0 this campaign.
More cards, especially early in the season
The 2024/25 Premier League season saw an average of 4.34 cards shown per game. It was only the second campaign in the last 15 years that has seen over four on average. This followed the 2023/24 season, which was the most card-friendly campaign in the competition's history, with an average of 4.53.
Interestingly, after the first 20 matchdays averaged 4.78 cards per game, it dropped significantly in the second half of the season. If that pattern continues, then the cards market in the early stages of the competition will be worth a look. Head to bet365 for the latest card betting odds.
Matchday four in 2024/25 saw 65 yellows, a record total, and four of the five highest totals have come in the first half of the season. September 16th-18th in 2023 had 57, August 31st-September 1st had 46, and November 8th-9th 2014 had 52. Following a few rule adaptations, the first few weeks of the season ahead may see some busy referees.
Cards per match in the Premier League - last 10 seasons
| Season | Cards Per Game |
|---|---|
| 15/16 | 3.49 |
| 16/17 | 3.93 |
| 17/18 | 3.31 |
| 18/19 | 3.5 |
| 19/20 | 3.65 |
| 20/21 | 3.16 |
| 21/22 | 3.69 |
| 22/23 | 3.77 |
| 23/24 | 4.53 |
| 24/25 | 4.34 |
| 25/26 (Until MD11) | 3.81 |
2025/26 PGMOL directives and why they usually lead to more cards
As is becoming the norm, just a day before the new Premier League season kicked off, the PGMOL announced which areas its referees will be focusing on in the new campaign.
Howard Webb has told his refs to crack down on grappling in set pieces. According to Webb, there have been far too many instances of players being held back or impeded off the ball. The result of this will likely mean an increase in penalties and bookings.
Webb has announced several new changes but the only other one that will likely affect the number of bookings is the ‘captains only’ rule. From this season, only a team’s captain will be invited to approach the referee to explain important decisions. Any infringement of this common practice will likely result in a card.
It wouldn’t be the first time a PGMOL directive has affected the card numbers. The 2023/24 season saw a clampdown on time-wasting across English football as a whole. In December 2023, the BBC looked at the increased number of bookings for dissent. By that stage of the 23/24 season, there had been 80 bookings for dissent - 56 more than the previous campaign.
VAR
One big reason for the recent increase is the introduction of VAR - or so you’d think. It is, of course, one of the most significant developments in football in recent times, and has been both celebrated and maligned.
The video referee was introduced at the start of the 19/20 Premier League season. While high-profile red card incidents stand out, the numbers highlighted by SpreadExSports suggest it hasn’t played a part in any dismissal increase.
“In what might be the single most shocking find of this entire study,” they said. “Despite the rise in penalties and injury time, the number of red cards dished out has actually gone down.” The five-year average pre-VAR saw a red card feature in 13.5% of Premier League games.
“Since video-assisted refereeing came in, that figure has dropped to 12.5% of games played in 2019/20. That’s a 7.4% decline in the number of red cards given out.”
Pep’s influence - high defensive lines and professional fouls
Football has evolved in recent years, and Pep Guardiola’s arrival at Manchester City has spearheaded that evolution in England. Teams are now playing with their defensive lines higher up the pitch, as can be seen below. (Taken from markstats.com).
| Season | Average Defensive Line Height (Metres) |
|---|---|
| 19/20 | 43.52 |
| 20/21 | 44.23 |
| 21/22 | 44.66 |
| 22/23 | 44.75 |
| 23/24 | 45.16 |
| 24/25 | 45.59 |
Higher defensive lines lead to cynical fouling as teams look to quash counterattacks when they lose the ball. The risk is also less significant when committing a foul further away from your own net. In January, the Athletic produced a piece detailing which areas of the pitch teams most frequently fouled.
Teams that featured near the top of the defensive line height tended to commit fouls further up the pitch. These types of challenges often make no attempt to play the ball. Instead, their purpose is to allow the defending team to retreat deeper and stop the counter, an offence which is an automatic card.
The card-happy referees
If you’re looking for games with particular referees, there are a few worth keeping an eye on. For instance, according to WhoScored, Michael Oliver handed out the most cards in the Premier League last season (113 yellows and five reds). That’s not including managers or substitutes, however, only players active on the pitch.
Meanwhile, of the referees who officiated 10 matches or more, John Brooks (16 matches) handed out the highest number of yellow cards per game. Matches officiated by him averaged 5.38 cards shown.
Check out the latest odds once the Premier League referee lists are announced for the best card betting opportunities.
There were others who were prolific in terms of yellow cards, too. Simon Hooper (4.67 yellows over 24 matches), Samuel Barrott (4.61 over 23) and Chris Kavanagh, (4.44 yellows over 25 matches), for example. If any of them are in charge, it’d be no surprise to see a few bookings.
The leading teams
What about the teams, you may be wondering. Which of them are the best to back if you’re looking into the cards market? Well, over the last two seasons, it’s been a London team playing in blue.
Chelsea have been the most carded team in the Premier League for the last couple of seasons. They set the record for most cards given to a team in a single season back in 2023/24 (105 yellows and four reds). This was followed up with 101 cards (99 yellow, two red) last season - the fourth most in the history of the Premier League.
Bournemouth ranked just behind the Blues with 97 yellows and two reds, and indeed their clash in September of last season was a record-breaker. It saw a whopping 14 yellow cards dished out by Anthony Taylor as Chelsea picked up a 1-0 win.
Lastly, one more team to look at are Aston Villa, but not because they get booked a lot themselves. The Villans’ opponents received the highest number of cards, with an average of 2.79 per game - including second yellows, over the course of last season. They were the most fouled team (13.1 per game) in the division.
So, whether it’s totals over the season, or on a game-by-game basis, there’s certainly value in the card market for the season ahead. Bet on Premier League cards here.