Wolves’ keeper Jose Sa held the ball for an average of 13.1 seconds per play in 24/25. Will more corners be awarded to Wolves’ 25/26 opponents?
| Premier League Corner Markets | Odds |
| Over 10 Asian Corners (Wolves vs Man City) | 4/5 |
| Over 10.5 Asian Corners (Chelsea vs Crystal Palace) | 1/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
A value bet when Wolves take on Man City
Premier League referees were found to rarely enforce the six-second rule, which awards opponents an indirect free kick when a keeper holds onto the ball for too long. As a result, a new rule is being implemented from 2025/26.
Following a successful trial in Premier League 2 last season, the PGMOL is enforcing an eight-second rule. Teams will be awarded a corner kick if the opposition keeper retains the ball for more than eight seconds per play.
While many of the goalkeepers for Premier League sides relegated in 2024/25 featured heavily at the top of this list, Wolves’ Jose Sa also ranked highly. The Gold and Blacks keeper was guilty of holding onto the ball for 13.1 seconds at a time, five seconds over this season’s benchmark.
As a matter of fact, only two keepers held onto the ball for fewer than eight seconds per play last season. This underlines the issue of ball retention and keepers attempting to slow down the pace of play.
The new law potentially creates a new betting angle in the corner betting markets. Given the data on Jose Sa, backing over 10.5 corners in Wolves’ opening game of 25/26 at home to Manchester City looks promising.
Wolves will surely attempt to disrupt Pep Guardiola’s men by slowing down the game, and using the keeper to waste time has long been a tactic. Teams may forget about the new rule in the opening weeks of the campaign, which will leave the likes of Sa vulnerable to being penalised by officials.
Wolves won an average of 3.92 corners per home game last season. Meanwhile, Manchester City racked up 6.66 corners per game last term.
This already suggests that backing 11 or more corners could be a sensible move. That’s before you factor in the potential for Sa to hold onto the ball for too long on one or more occasions.
Generous odds in Chelsea’s Premier League opener
Chelsea keeper Robert Sanchez was booked on four occasions during the course of last season for time wasting. This makes him another potential target for breaching the new eight-second rule for retaining the ball per play.
Enzo Maresca’s Blues racked up 6.16 corners per game in 2024/25, while their opening week opponents, Crystal Palace, forced 4.5 corners per game last term.
Once again, this suggests that backing 11 or more corners is a viable option. This is true even without factoring in the prospect of Sanchez being penalised for holding onto the ball for nine or more seconds in-play.
Chelsea are expected to be even more attack-minded in 2025/26, having recruited many more players in the final third this summer. This includes Joao Pedro, Liam Delap, Jamie Gittens and Brazilian starlet, Estevao.
At a probability of less than 50% (47.62%), backing over 10.5 corners is a clear value play for Sunday’s game.