Relegation-threatened West Ham and Wolves will also be pushed to the limit by Burton and Grimsby, with the latter already a giant-killer this season.
| FA Cup 4th Round Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Hull vs Chelsea (Hull Win) | 13/2 |
| Burton Albion vs West Ham (Burton Win) | 15/2 |
| Birmingham City vs Leeds United (Birmingham Win) | 12/5 |
| Grimsby Town vs Wolves (Grimsby Win) | 6/1 |
| Oxford United vs Sunderland (Oxford Win) | 15/4 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Backing the Blues and Grimsby to cause serious FA Cup upsets
Birmingham City host Leeds United next weekend, with the Blues aiming to reach the last 16 for only the second time in 14 seasons. Chris Davies’ side are desperate to gatecrash the Championship playoffs, and a cup run would seriously boost their confidence and help them on their way.
The Blues average 1.93 points per home game, in contrast to 0.94 points per away game this season. St Andrews has been a serious fortress in the last 18 months.
Meanwhile, Leeds’ form away from Elland Road is very concerning. The Whites currently average just 0.58 points per away game. Given that staying in the PL is their only aim this season, they may sacrifice a cup run to rest players next weekend.
Relegation to the Championship is all but certain for Wolverhampton Wanderers. The Gold and Blacks are 18 points adrift of safety. Boss Rob Edwards’ January signings are seemingly made with a focus on life in the second tier next season.
With a 4% win rate this season, the Wanderers have truly lost their competitive edge. They are scheduled to visit Grimsby Town, a League Two side with playoff ambitions. The Mariners have already claimed a major victory this season by eliminating Manchester United from the EFL Cup on penalties.
Grimsby have won five of their last six League Two games to move to within five points of the playoff places with a game in hand. During this period, they have also conceded just two goals and kept clean sheets in all five victories.
Although the talent gap between Wolves and Grimsby is clear, form and confidence are crucial factors. Grimsby’s Blundell Park can also serve as a significant equalizer, a reality Manchester United experienced during their defeat there earlier in the season.
Chelsea and Sunderland may lack focus
Chelsea missed out on a Wembley cup final in midweek, losing their EFL Cup semi-final to Arsenal 4-2 on aggregate. The Blues’ main goal is to secure a top-four finish and go deep in this season’s Champions League.
They could still win some silverware in the FA Cup, but it is uncertain how seriously Liam Rosenior will take the competition. The Blues face Rosenior’s former club, Hull City, who are currently third in the Championship.
The Tigers are currently performing significantly better than expected, holding a total that is 19 points higher than their expected points (xPts). With City able to call upon a clinical, in-form striker like Oli McBurnie, Hull could cause an upset at home.
Oxford United appear increasingly likely to be relegated to League One, as they currently sit five points away from safety.
Matt Bloomfield’s men have proven to be a formidable opponent at home. They’ve secured two wins over Ipswich and Southampton, both of whom were competing in the Premier League this time last season.
Oxford have been drawn against Premier League opposition at home in the fourth round of the FA Cup. Regis Le Bris’ Sunderland travel south next weekend, with the Black Cats fully focused on guaranteeing survival in the EPL.
Sunderland may have already accumulated enough points to avoid relegation, allowing Le Bris to consider a cup run. However, if key players are rested, the quality of the squad may drop to Championship levels, potentially bringing them down to Oxford’s level of competition.
Finally, West Ham United are fighting to stay in the Premier League, as they currently sit in 18th place, six points adrift of safety. Nuno Espirito Santo’s men are solely focused on remaining in the division and catching the likes of Leeds and Nottingham Forest.
A successful FA Cup run appears to be a secondary priority compared to avoiding the club's first relegation to the second tier since the 2011/12 season.
They travel to Burton Albion, a struggling League One club that would benefit from the financial rewards of a cup run. Albion’s Pirelli Stadium playing surface is tight and congested, which could make it difficult for the Hammers to dominate.
It remains to be seen if West Ham have the resolve for a physical contest in Staffordshire. The Brewers currently hold a win probability of just 13.33%, making them an intriguing prospect for those looking for an upset.