Ange Postecoglou’s woeful 39-day reign was arguably doomed from the start, but the ex-Everton boss should be a better fit.
| Nottingham Forest Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| To beat Porto | 6/4 |
| Bournemouth vs Forest - Under 2.5 goals | 1/1 |
| Top half finish in the Premier League | 6/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Why Dyche is a better fit for Forest
Although they struggled in the final few weeks, Nottingham Forest had an excellent 2024/25 campaign under Nuno Espirito Santo. The Portuguese boss developed a clear playing style that got the best out of his squad.
Across Nuno’s reign at the City Ground, Forest averaged just a 41.4% share of the ball in the Premier League. They played in quite a direct manner, with 13.8% of their passes going long, while 26% of their goals came from set-pieces.
That approach was ideally suited to serving their powerful striker Chris Wood. The New Zealander spearheaded his team’s push for Champions League qualification last term with 20 goals. He also averaged 2.6 aerial challenges won per game.
Following Nuno’s shock departure, after a falling out with owner Evangelos Marinakis, Postecoglou always seemed like the wrong man for the job. His Spurs side adopted a very different approach, with a much greater emphasis on keeping the ball. Under Postecoglou, the North Londoners completed 177 more passes per game on average in the Premier League when compared to Nuno’s Forest.
The Australian failed to implement his ideas at the East Midlands club, but Marinakis seems to have made a better appointment this time around. Dyche is a far better fit in terms of trying to build on the strong foundations left by Nuno.
During his tenure at Everton, the Toffees averaged just a 39.5% share of the ball in the Premier League. They completed 10 fewer passes per game on average than Forest under Nuno, with 17.5% of their balls going long. Meanwhile, a huge 44% of Everton’s goals under Dyche came from set-pieces.
Can they recover to finish in the top 10?
From day one, it’s likely we’ll see a very different Nottingham Forest under Dyche. His approach will much more closely resemble that of Nuno, and that clarity should benefit a squad that have seemed lost in recent weeks.
With former Forest heroes Ian Woan, Steve Stone and Billy Mercer among his coaching staff, Dyche’s appointment has largely been welcomed. That should help generate renewed excitement around the club’s first European campaign in 30 years.
The 54-year-old’s reign will start with a home game against Porto. Francesco Farioli’s side are having a good season, but they’ve not played a league or European match in nearly three weeks. That could leave them slightly undercooked and vulnerable to a potential new manager bounce against Forest.
Dyche will also prioritise trying to restore some belief to a defence that let in just 1.21 goals per game in the 2024/25 Premier League. He’s likely to adopt a conservative approach to this weekend’s fixture against Bournemouth. There may be value in backing that match to produce two or fewer goals, with an implied probability of 50%.
On paper, Nottingham Forest have a stronger squad now than was the case last year. They spent more than £20m on five occasions in the summer, and crucially held on to key man Morgan Gibbs-White. With 30 league matches to go, there is still plenty of time for Dyche to turn their season around.
With surely the best squad he’s had to work with during his managerial career, Dyche should steer his new side clear of any relegation trouble. If he starts well, a top-half finish may not be out of the question either. There appears to be value in backing them to finish in the top 10 with an implied probability of 14.3%.