Chile vs Ecuador Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Chile vs Ecuador
- Draw or Ecuador and Under 2.5 Goals @ 1/1 with bet365
- Enner Valencia Anytime Goalscorer @ 5/2 with bet365
- Chile Under 0.5 Goals @ 6/4 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
It has been a gruelling 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign for Chile, who host second-placed Ecuador in Santiago this week.
Ricardo Gareca’s side are rooted at the bottom of the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying table. They are desperately trying to keep pace with the likes of Venezuela and Bolivia for a chance in the playoffs.
Chile missed out on a golden opportunity to close the gap to Bolivia and Venezuela last week, losing 1-0 to Paraguay. La Roja dominated the first 45 minutes but missed a glut of chances, before the Paraguayans took control in the second half.
At the other end of the spectrum, Ecuador have been in fine form and are on the cusp of qualifying for next summer’s finals already. This would be a superb achievement, since Ecuador have only qualified for back-to-back World Cups once before.
The secret to the success of Sebastian Beccacece’s squad has been their defensive resilience. In a qualifying campaign involving the likes of Argentina and Brazil, Ecuador have conceded just five goals in 13 games.
Probable Lineups for Chile vs Ecuador
Chile Expected Lineup: Cortes; Suazo, Loyola, Diaz, Maripan, Echeverria, Vidal, Pizarro, Sanchez, Vargas, Cepeda
Ecuador Expected Lineup: Galindez; Estupinan, Ordonez, Pacho, Torres, Vite, Plata, Caicedo, Franco, Mercado, Valencia
Betting against La Roja
Chile have won only two of their six home games during their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign. Given that Ecuador have only lost to Argentina and Brazil away from home, it’s difficult to back La Roja to win with any confidence.
That’s why we’re combining a double chance bet on the draw and Ecuador with a bet on the contest featuring two or fewer goals scored.
Despite Ecuador’s successful campaign, they have only managed one goal in their last four away games. Scoring goals has been Chile’s biggest problem too, as they have only managed nine in 13 games so far.
- Chile vs Ecuador Bet 1: Draw or Ecuador and Under 2.5 Goals @ 1/1 with bet365
Enner Valencia in Superb Form
Ecuador’s all-time leading scorer, Enner Valencia, may be 35, but he is in exceptional form at the moment. The forward has scored five in his last six games for La Tricolor.
The former West Ham and Fenerbahce forward has not been prolific for his club side, Internacional, by any means. He has scored three goals in 11 appearances for the Brazilian Serie A outfit.
However, Valencia’s role for the national team cannot be overstated. He is a progressive ball carrier that helps the team step up and squeeze opponents.
We can currently back Valencia to score at any time at a probability of just 32.26%. This seems very low considering his strike rate over the last six games has been 83.33%. It’s comfortably our top value play among our trio of Chile vs Ecuador predictions.
- Chile vs Ecuador Bet 2: Enner Valencia Anytime Goalscorer @ 5/2 with bet365
Another Clean Sheet for La Tricolor
Ecuador’s defensive record away from home in this qualifying campaign has been quite remarkable. La Tricolor have conceded just three goals on their travels, which has been the bedrock of their success.
In total, they have only conceded eight goals in the entire campaign, which is the best defensive record in the table.
Given that Chile have scored just nine goals in 13 games, it doesn’t bode well for the ageing Chilean forward line to break through Ecuador’s resolute backline. That’s why we’re backing a clean sheet for La Tricolor in Santiago.
- Chile vs Ecuador Bet 3: Chile Under 0.5 Goals @ 6/4 with bet365