David Raya has rarely been tested in the Gunners’ goal in recent weeks, with their back four doing a fine job.
| Arsenal Premier League betting markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win to nil vs Burnley | 10/11 |
| To win to nil vs Sunderland | 11/10 |
| To concede under 14.5 goals | 33/1 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Gunners' defence on course for record-breaking season
Chelsea hold the record for the fewest goals conceded in a Premier League season. That was set over 20 years ago, when Jose Mourinho’s team let in just 15 goals across their 2004/05 title-winning campaign.
Arsenal’s best defensive league season was 1998/99, when Arsene Wenger’s side only conceded 17 times. That was also an extraordinary record, but it wasn’t enough to clinch the title, which went to Man Utd.
With defending champions Liverpool struggling and Man City not fully convincing, Arsenal are the clear favourites to win the Premier League this term. Their success so far is mostly due to their high-quality defense.
The Gunners have conceded only three times in their opening nine Premier League matches. They’ve won five in a row in all competitions without conceding a goal.
The underlying data also suggests their defensive numbers are not coincidental. Arsenal have only allowed 5.2 xG in the English top flight this term, which is the best record in Europe’s big five leagues. Furthermore, they have not allowed more than 1.0 xG in a single match since the opening day of the season at Man Utd.
They’ve allowed their Premier League opponents to have just 8.0 shots per game on average, which is also the best record in the division. Their last three league matches have seen their opponents register a combined total of just one shot on target.
How many goals will they concede?
Arsenal's strong defensive numbers raise the possibility that they could break the Premier League record for fewest goals conceded.
bet365 are running a special on whether they will better Chelsea’s 2004/05 figure of 15 conceded. The Gunners are given an implied probability of 2.9% of conceding under 14.5 goals.
Those odds seem generous given Arsenal’s current average of 0.33 goals against per 90 minutes. They are on course to let in between 12 and 13. Moreover, they have already played Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City, and Newcastle in the Premier League, with three of those fixtures being away from home.
With more favourable fixtures ahead, Arsenal should be capable of continuing to concede at a similar rate or better until the midway point.
Of course, there are factors that could potentially stop them from breaking the record over a 38-game season. Losing William Saliba or Gabriel Magalhaes to injury for any length of time would clearly be a major issue.
However, summer signing Cristhian Mosquera has already shown himself to be a capable deputy. Additionally, there are strong back-up options at full-back.
Arsenal’s chances of conceding 14 or fewer goals could also depend on one of their rivals pushing them all the way in the title race. Liverpool eased off and conceded nine times in their final four matches last term after winning the league.
If the Gunners also win the Premier League early, their defensive numbers will likely suffer in the final weeks.
Those factors, and the potential for Champions League distractions, suggest Arteta’s side are still more likely than not to fall short. However, all the underlying data suggests that they have one of the best defences in the Premier League.
They certainly have a chance of getting very close. At such long odds, Arsenal may be worth backing to concede under 14.5 goals.