With Arteta facing fresh injuries during the international break, there is uncertainty surrounding the Gunners’ likely starting XI.
Best bets for Southampton vs Arsenal
- Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 1.95 with bet365
- Southampton +2 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 1.91 with bet365
- Southampton (1st Goal) at odds of 3.75 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Backing both sides to find the net
Arsenal have conceded goals in two of their three FA Cup ties so far this campaign. They’ve played both of those contests away from North London, just like Saturday evening’s trip to Southampton.
The Gunners conceded against League One Mansfield and the Saints’ arch-rivals, Portsmouth. There’s no reason why Southampton can’t breach the Arsenal backline as well. In fact, the betting markets suggest there is a 52.63% chance of it happening. Therefore, this is the top value play from our trio of Southampton vs Arsenal predictions.
Both teams have scored in 66.67% of FA Cup ties involving Arsenal and Southampton so far this season.
- Southampton vs Arsenal Bet 1: Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 1.95 with bet365
Saints to stay in the game
Arsenal won by three and four-goal margins against Portsmouth and Wigan, respectively. However, their last 16 tie at Mansfield was the only one they won by a one-goal margin. We expect a similar outcome on Saturday evening.
The Saints have conceded just 1 goal per FA Cup game so far this season. They’ve only let in four goals in their last seven Championship games too, suggesting that their system and defensive structure is increasingly tight.
Arsenal will surely be prioritising their fight for the Premier League title and success in the Champions League over their FA Cup campaign. We can back the Saints to lose by only a one-goal margin or better at a probability of only 51.28%.
- Southampton vs Arsenal Bet 2: Southampton +2 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 1.91 with bet365
Value on the hosts scoring first
Arsenal fell behind in their FA Cup 3rd Round game at Southampton’s bitter Championship rivals, Portsmouth, in January. Pompey scored after just three minutes, catching the Gunners cold on the south coast.
Southampton have scored first in all three of their cup ties so far this campaign. However, they only managed to score in the 91st minute in their 1-0 win at Fulham last month.
With Arsenal potentially suffering a hangover from their EFL Cup final loss and the March international break, there’s value in backing the Saints to score first. The betting markets suggest there is only a 26.32% chance of them doing so. This seems lower than it should be, given Southampton’s recent form and their backing of a sell-out home crowd.
- Southampton vs Arsenal Bet 3: Southampton (1st Goal) at odds of 3.75 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Southampton 1-2 Arsenal
- Goalscorers prediction - Southampton: Larin - Arsenal: Dowman, Jesus
Championship playoff hopefuls Southampton are one win away from a Wembley FA Cup semi-final. However, they will need to overcome Arsenal to reach the last four.
The Saints have been on a hugely impressive run of form in the Championship. They are unbeaten in their last 12 league games, winning nine and drawing three to move into top six contention. Moreover, they’ve already beaten Premier League opposition in the FA Cup, with a last-gasp win at Fulham in the last 16.
Southampton boss Tonda Eckert seems set to be without Brazilian full-back Welington (muscle). Still, playmaker Leo Scienza is likely to recover from a groin problem to be fit for selection.
Arsenal have had two weeks to get over their EFL Cup final defeat to Manchester City at Wembley. Gunners boss, Mikel Arteta, was criticised for the team’s timid approach to the game, along with his decision to play David Raya in goal over Kepa. The latter had played a crucial role in their run to the final.
With City hoping that this cup win gives them a psychological boost for the Premier League title run-in, Arsenal have another cup distraction this weekend. No fewer than 11 of Arsenal’s senior players pulled out of their respective international squads with injuries last week. Arteta will need to decide on whether to rest certain players for the Premier League and give players like Max Dowman more opportunities in the FA Cup.
Probable lineups for Southampton vs Arsenal
Southampton expected lineup: Peretz, Bree, Manning, Stephens, Harwood-Bellis, Downes, Charles, Fellows, Azaz, Scienza, Larin
Arsenal expected lineup: Kepa, White, Mosquera, Lewis-Skelly, Calafiori, Norgaard, Zubimendi, Martinelli, Dowman, Havertz, Jesus