The Dutch are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Norway. With Erling Haaland rested, is this a good chance to extend that run to five games?
Best bets for Netherlands vs Norway
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.50 with bet365
- Netherlands to win and Both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 3.20 with bet365
- Over 1.5 first-half goals at odds of 2.37 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Plenty of goal action expected
In a friendly featuring two of Europe’s three highest-scoring nations in the last 12 months, goals are surely likely to flow. Even without the presence of Norway’s Erling Haaland, they still have plenty of firepower in their arsenal. Sorloth and Strand Larsen both have the ability to find the net regularly at international level.
The Netherlands are likely to have a more experienced international forward line, with the likes of Gakpo and Malen involved. Brian Brobbey may be given a start in the central attacking berth to prove himself for this summer’s finals.
Three-quarters (75%) of Norway’s away games in recent international friendlies have featured four or more goals. Meanwhile, 80% of the Netherlands’ home games in recent friendlies have yielded 4+ goals. That’s why we’re backing over 3.5 goals at a probability of only 40%.
- Netherlands vs Norway Bet 1: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.50 with bet365
Oranje to take the win, but the visitors to score
With Haaland absent, Norway are naturally weakened, even if they have reasonable deputies. The Netherlands are by no means at full strength, with Kluivert, de Jong, Timber, and Emegha sidelined. We still expect the hosts to win.
The Dutch have won by four-goal margins in three of their last four qualifying games. With nothing but pride riding on this game, we expect both teams to score, even if Oranje win at a canter. 50% of Norway’s recent friendlies have resulted in both teams scoring.
We can back a home win and goals at both ends at a probability of only 31.25%. This looks like the best value bet from our trio of Netherlands vs Norway predictions.
- Netherlands vs Norway Bet 2: Netherlands to win and Both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 3.20 with bet365
Backing two or more first-half goals
The Netherlands’ recent home friendlies have averaged two first-half goals. Meanwhile, Norway’s recent away friendlies have seen 1.5 goals scored per first-half.
We can back two or more first-half goals on Friday evening at a probability of just 42.19%. This should be much closer to a coinflip. Matches involving much-changed teams often lack structure and cause more chaos at both ends.
The Dutch have players like Brobbey, who will be desperate to make their mark before this summer’s finals. Meanwhile, Sorloth and Strand Larsen also want to prove their worth as able deputies to Haaland.
- Netherlands vs Norway Bet 3: Over 1.5 first-half goals at odds of 2.37 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Netherlands 3-1 Norway
- Goalscorers prediction - Netherlands: Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, Tijjani Reijnders - Norway: Alexander Sørloth
The Netherlands and Norway have already qualified for this summer’s World Cup finals. This makes Friday’s friendly an ideal tune-up for their fringe players.
The Dutch topped Group G in their World Cup qualifying campaign, completing their eight-game run unbeaten. They also conceded just four goals and scored 27 goals in the process. Interestingly, the Netherlands are the third-highest scorers of European nations in their last eight games. Only two teams have outscored them, one of which is their opponent on Friday.
Ronald Koeman won’t have a full-strength squad at his disposal on Friday. Frenkie de Jong is out (hamstring), while Matthijs de Ligt and Jurrien Timber are unlikely to feature. Galatasaray forward, Noa Lang, has been called up to the squad and should be in contention, provided his hand injury isn’t too serious.
Norway are also weakened by the absence of star striker, Erling Haaland, who has been rested by manager Stale Solbakken. The Manchester City marksman is given this fortnight’s rest to ensure he’s fit and firing for the summer.
With Haaland in their roster, Norway have been unstoppable lately. No European nation has scored more goals than them in the last eight matches. The Norwegians have scored 37 goals in eight games, although their 11-1 win over Moldova distorts those figures a bit.
Probable lineups for Netherlands vs Norway
Netherlands expected lineup: Flekken, van Dijk, Dumfries, Frimpong, Ake, Reijnders, Gravenberch, Koopmeiners, Gakpo, Malen, Brobbey
Norway expected lineup: Nyland, Ryerson, Wolfe, Heggem, Ajer, Berge, Berg, Thorstvedt, Bobb, Nusa, Sørloth