City have won only four of their last eight meetings with Southampton, with the Saints defeating City in cup competition during 2023’s EFL Cup.
Best bets for Manchester City vs Southampton
- Manchester City -2 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.50 with bet365
- Both teams to score (No) at odds of 1.85 with bet365
- 2nd Half (Half with most goals) at odds of 1.95 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Backing City to win with plenty to spare
City faced off with Southampton in the 2021/22 FA Cup, winning by a three-goal margin (4-1). We expect them to repeat the feat this weekend. City dominated Liverpool by a four-goal margin three weeks ago to reach the last four. They also won by a three-goal margin at Chelsea ten days ago.
Pep Guardiola’s side have averaged 1.90 goals scored per game in this season’s cup run. However, their ability to score four against Liverpool and three against Chelsea suggests they can take advantage of Southampton’s fatigue.
City will aim to expose the Saints on the expansive Wembley Stadium pitch. We can back City to run out winners by three or more goals at a probability of 40%.
- Manchester City vs Southampton Bet 1: Manchester City -2 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.50 with bet365
Value on a clean sheet for either side
Four of the last five meetings between these sides have seen a clean sheet for either side. Southampton even managed one in January 2023 when they knocked City out of the EFL Cup 2-0 at St Mary’s.
Despite 80% of the last five head-to-head meetings featuring a clean sheet, we can back one this Saturday at a probability of only 54.05%. Therefore, this is the top value bet from our trio of Manchester City vs Southampton predictions.
We’ve already mentioned City’s recent clean sheet record, but it’s important to be reinforced. Clean sheets in crunch cup ties and league games against Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea suggest they should be able to prevent the second-tier Saints from scoring.
- Manchester City vs Southampton Bet 2: Both teams to score (No) at odds of 1.85 with bet365
Goal action feels more likely after the interval
Southampton’s only option is to contain and frustrate City this weekend. The Saints won’t be able to go toe-to-toe with their opponents like they can in the Championship. If they can stay level or in touch with City in the first half, they may aim to open up after the break to try and force the issue.
City have been level at halftime in 60% of their cup ties this season. More than 54% of goals in Southampton’s cup ties arrived after the interval. Interestingly, more than 27% were scored in the final 15 minutes of cup matches this season.
Only 5% of City’s FA Cup goals scored this season arrived inside the opening half hour of matches. In fact, almost 73% arrived between the 41st and 70th minute mark. We can back the second half to feature more goals than the first period at a probability of only 51.28%.
- Manchester City vs Southampton Bet 3: 2nd half (Half with most goals) at odds of 1.95 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Manchester City 3-0 Southampton
- Goalscorers prediction - Manchester City: Haaland, Cherki, Semenyo - Southampton: N/A
Manchester City face off against Championship promotion hopefuls Southampton in the first FA Cup semi-final of the weekend at Wembley.
Pep Guardiola’s men are highly motivated after returning to the top of the Premier League table on Wednesday night. City’s narrow away win at Burnley saw them leapfrog the Gunners into first place with five league games remaining. A domestic double is still a realistic possibility for City, with a cup semi-final against second-tier opposition this weekend.
It seems like Guardiola has primed his squad for the season run-in. They’ve won their last four games across all competitions, scoring 11 goals and conceding only one. This defensive solidity has been achieved despite injuries to key defenders, such as Gvardiol. Meanwhile, holding midfielder Rodri may be absent this weekend with a muscle complaint.
Southampton have been on an incredible run of form in the league and cup. The Saints are currently unbeaten in their last 20 matches in all competitions. However, there were signs that Tonda Eckert’s side were jaded during Tuesday’s 2-2 draw at home to Bristol City. Southampton needed all three points to remain serious contenders for automatic promotion, but lacked the intensity of previous wins and fightbacks.
They are currently in a period of seven games in 21 days, with Saturday’s game being the sixth of this hectic run. Although FA Cup success would be an historic achievement for Southampton, bouncing back into the Premier League remains the club’s number-one priority this season.
Probable lineups for Manchester City vs Southampton
Manchester City Expected Lineup: Trafford, Nunes, O’Reilly, Khusanov, Guehi, Gonzalez, Silva, Semenyo, Cherki, Doku, Haaland
Southampton Expected Lineup: Peretz, Bree, Manning, Harwood-Bellis, Wood, Downes, Charles, Matsuki, Azaz, Scienza, Larin