In Bayern’s last ten European semi-finals where they’ve lost the first leg, they were eliminated in nine of them. Can they break the mould?
Best bets for Bayern Munich vs PSG
- Bayern Munich to qualify at odds of 1.85 with bet365
- Michael Olise anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.10 with bet365
- 2nd Half (Half with most goals) at odds of 1.90 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Bayern to take advantage of Hakimi’s injury lay-off
Although Bayern are a goal behind on aggregate after the first leg, the data suggests they are still well in this tie. Vincent Kompany’s side have won all six of their home fixtures in the Champions League so far this season.
Although PSG’s away form in the UCL has been equally impressive, beating Chelsea and Liverpool away, there is one crucial concern this week. Achraf Hakimi is sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Moroccan international is currently one of the most dynamic full-backs in world football. Even a team of PSG’s quality will be impacted by his absence.
Bayern only need to win Tuesday’s game by a one-goal margin to take the tie into extra time. At this stage, anything is possible. The tie could go all the way to penalties, where home advantage will prove beneficial.
- Bayern Munich vs PSG Bet 1: Bayern Munich to qualify at odds of 1.85 with bet365
Value on Olise to find the net
Bayern forward Michael Olise has been in excellent form so far this season. He’s scored five goals in 12 Champions League appearances in 2025/26 at a strike rate of 41.67%. He also has three goal contributions in his last three UCL matches.
That’s why there is value in Olise scoring on Tuesday night at a probability of 43.48%. Based on his short-term form, we’re confident in backing him to find the net above his seasonal strike rate.
Olise played in Bayern’s weekend game in the Bundesliga, an entertaining 3-3 home draw with bottom club FC Heidenheim. Olise scored one and set up another, and appeared sharp in front of goal once again.
- Bayern Munich vs PSG Bet 2: Michael Olise anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.10 with bet365
Fireworks in the second half if PSG keep things tight early on
Despite a nine-goal thriller in the first leg, PSG are unlikely to start strong at the Allianz Arena. With Hakimi sidelined and a one-goal lead to protect, Les Parisiens will surely take a more cautious approach this week.
PSG’s average first goal time in the UCL this season is the 51st minute. Their average first goal conceded time in the competition is the 45th minute. Even Bayern have scored only 50% of their UCL goals at home in the first half.
Given what’s at stake, we’re expecting a cagier first half on Tuesday. If Bayern still need goals in the second period, it could become a free-for-all late on. We can back the second half to feature more goals than the first at a 52.63% probability. It’s arguably the best value play from our trio of Bayern Munich vs PSG predictions.
- Bayern Munich vs PSG Bet 3: 2nd Half (Half with most goals) at odds of 1.90 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Bayern 3-2 PSG (Bayern to Win on Penalties)
- Goalscorers prediction - Bayern: Kane x2, Olise - PSG: Dembele, Doue
It’s round two for the Champions League semi-final between Bayern Munich and PSG. The latter hold a narrow one-goal advantage heading into the second leg at the Allianz Arena.
The first leg was one of the most exciting encounters in Champions League history. A nine-goal thriller was the highest-scoring Champions League semi-final in history. Bayern Munich could have been down and out at the end of the first leg. The German side were 5-2 down at the Parc des Princes before narrowing PSG’s advantage to one goal later.
Vincent Kompany’s men will need to start fast if they are to get a foothold back in this tie. They’ve scored first in six of their last seven head-to-head meetings with PSG, so it’s certainly possible. Goals are sure to flow in the second leg too, with Bayern scoring 20 in their last six UCL home matches.
Defending UCL champions PSG have a genuine chance to retain their European crown. Luis Enrique’s side were irresistible in front of goal for large parts of the first leg at Parc des Princes. Les Parisiens are equally prolific away from home too. They’ve scored 18 goals in their last seven UCL away games at an average of over 2.5 goals per game.
PSG lost focus domestically at the weekend, drawing 2-2 with Lorient at home. Enrique’s men are firmly focused on Tuesday evening’s match. The main issue for Enrique this week is the absence of full-back Achraf Hakimi. The Moroccan’s hamstring injury rules him out for the trip to Munich.
Probable lineups for Bayern Munich vs PSG
Bayern Munich expected lineup: Neuer, Davies, Laimer, Tah, Upamecano, Pavlovic, Kimmich, Diaz, Olise, Musiala, Kane
Paris Saint-Germain expected lineup: Safonov, Mayulu, Mendes, Marquinhos, Pacho, Neves, Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Doue, Kvaratskhelia, Dembele