Our betting expert expects Hajime Moriyasu’s Japan to clinch their first World Cup win by dispatching Tunisia at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey.
Best Predictions for Tunisia vs Japan
- Both teams to score – Yes @ +120
- Second half - Japan - Moneyline @ +100
- Over 2.5 total goals @ +110
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Elephants to test Germany early
Tunisia suffered one of the World Cup’s heaviest defeats as Sweden secured a 5-1 victory. However, the African side managed to reduce the deficit before half-time through Omar Rekik’s first-half strike.
Herve Renard will rely on midfield talisman Ellyes Skhiri to neutralise Japan’s middle-third and create chances. Goals have been scarce for Tunisia, who have scored just two goals in their last five matches.
Japan’s performance against the Netherlands demonstrated their competitive spirit. They are unbeaten across eight games and have scored in each one. Therefore, there is value in backing them to find the net against Tunisia's shaky defence.
However, Japan are vulnerable in transitions, something which the Netherlands’ first goal exposed. If Japan are slow to adjust their tactical shape, Tunisia could exploit those gaps to score.
- Tunisia vs Japan Prediction 1: Both teams to score – Yes @ +120
Blue Samurai to pressure Tunisia
Tunisia trailed by two goals inside the opening 30 minutes against Sweden. Omar Rekik’s 43rd-minute strike raised hopes of a second-half comeback. However, the Swedes were clinical after the break, punishing Tunisia’s mistakes ruthlessly.
The African side struggled to keep momentum. They appeared fatigued by the final whistle. If they don’t press enough, they will end up chasing shadows once again.
This time, they face a similarly unforgiving Japan side. The Blue Samurai scored two second-half equalisers against the Netherlands. They never looked out of contention for at least a draw.
Both squads travel to Nuevo Leon knowing their qualification prospects depend on how effectively they recover from the physical exertion of their opening fixtures.
- Tunisia vs Japan Prediction 2: Second half - Japan - Moneyline @ +100
Fireworks in Monterrey
A defeat in this match would result in Tunisia's elimination. That urgency alone should push them to attack and adopt an offensive approach. Defending deeply will cause significant problems for the team.
Even if they rely on a counter-attacking approach, they will create some goal-worthy chances. Furthermore, Rekik’s goal against Sweden demonstrated that they can effectively crowd the penalty area during open play and set-pieces.
Simultaneously, Japan remain consistent goalscorers. They have netted 15 goals across their last eight unbeaten games, including three against Brazil. Although the Netherlands exploited space to score twice in quick succession, Japan rarely make tactical errors.
Japan are a well-organised defensive unit. However, individual matchups are expected to dictate the outcome. Both sides will have their fair share of chances. The race for three points in Group F promises fireworks.
- Tunisia vs Japan Prediction 3: Over 2.5 total goals @ +110
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Tunisia 1-2 Japan
- Goalscorers prediction: Tunisia: Saad Elias; Japan: Koki Ogawa, Ayase Ueda
Although not all is lost, Tunisia’s hopes of progressing to the knockout stage hang by a thread. They prepare to face a well-organised Japan side. Sweden dominated Tunisia 5-1 in their World Cup opener. This result stands as the largest margin of victory in the tournament so far.
That defeat brought the first managerial sacking of the tournament. Sabri Lamouchi was dismissed immediately, joining an exclusive list of six managers who have been fired during a World Cup tournament.
French coach Herve Renard, famous for leading African teams, has taken over. His first match in charge will be a monumental challenge. Japan are one of the tournament’s dark horses.
The Blue Samurai competed until the final whistle against the Netherlands, as Daichi Kamada scored an equaliser in the 89th minute. They came from behind twice to bag a point. They showed resilience, and they are unlikely to reduce their intensity in this second round.
Both sides have quality, but Japan have squad depth and an impressive European base. In fact, 23 of their 26 players play in European teams. Tunisia need to win, and so do Japan. They also met in the 2002 edition, when then hosts Japan won 2-0. This tactical contest represents their sixth meeting, and conditions favour a Japan victory.
Probable lineups for Tunisia vs Japan
Tunisia expected lineup: Dahmen, Valery, Bronn, Talbi, Abdi, Skhiri, Mejbri, Ben Slimane, Achouri, Chaouat, Saad
Japan expected lineup: Suzuki, Sugawara, Itakura, Ito, Tomiyasu, Endo, Tanaka, Kubo, Kamada, Doan, Ueda