No. 4 Nebraska will take on No. 9 Iowa on Thursday night in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16. The Cornhuskers have already beat the Hawkeyes once this season and are favourites to win again in this matchup, but Iowa should be able to give Fred Hoiberg’s team a good fight.
Iowa vs Nebraska Predictions - 7:30pm ET - 3/26
- Nebraska Moneyline (-130)
- Bennett Stirtz Under 18.5 Points (-115)
- Pryce Sandfort Under 3.5 Threes (-180)
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
- Get more sports bonuses with the BetMGM promo code
- Set up for the tournament? Check out our March Madness Betting Promos with $5,000+ up for grabs
- Or read our basketball expert’s view on the best March Madness betting sites to use
Iowa vs Nebraska Odds
- Spread: Nebraska -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Nebraska (-130)
- Total: O/U 132.5 (-110)
Iowa vs Nebraska Picks
Nebraska Moneyline (-130)
Fresh off their thrilling upset over No. 1 Florida in the last round, Iowa are one of the hottest teams in college basketball. Casual fans love an underdog and many think that the Hawkeyes can keep their Cinderella run going. This is why bet365 and other March Madness betting odds have made this game a toss-up.
Despite the odds, Nebraska are our favourites to advance to the Elite Eight.
These teams have already played twice. Iowa won the first game at home at the Carver-Hawkeye Arena, but Nebraska pulled off a big overtime victory in their second matchup.
In both games, the Cornhuskers absolutely swarmed the Hawkeyes. Iowa had a 20% turnover rate in their first game and 26% in the second. Maryland ES had the highest turnover rate in the NCAA this season, with 20.5%.
In other words, the Hawkeyes turned the ball over as often as the worst team in college basketball against Nebraska. If this trend holds, it’s hard to see Iowa beating the Cornhuskers on Thursday.
- Iowa vs Nebraska Prediction 1: Nebraska Moneyline @ -130
Bennett Stirtz UNDER 18.5 Points (-115)
Bennett Stirtz is without a doubt one of the best players in college basketball and will be the best player on the court in Houston against Iowa. With all this being said, it’s not been a stellar tournament for the 22-year-old.
Stirtz made some big plays down the stretch against Florida, but overall, the Gators did a good job of closing him down. The point guard had just 13 points in the game and went 0-9 on three-pointers. He put just 23.5% from the field versus Clemson in the Round of 64.
This makes it clear that Iowa’s March Madness opponents are focusing hard on stopping Stirtz, but he’s shooting anyway and he’s not making a lot of his shots. We expect this to continue against Nebraska.
Stirtz had a massive performance against the Cornhuskers earlier this season, scoring 25 points in the Hawkeyes’ win at home. In the second game though, he scored just 11 points, despite the game going to overtime. The senior also turned the ball over 3+ times in both those games.
He may end up making the difference for Iowa, but we’re willing to bet that Bennett Stirtz won’t have a big scoring night against Nebraska.
- Iowa vs Nebraska Prediction 2: Bennett Stirtz UNDER 18.5 Points @ -115
Pryce Sandfort UNDER 3.5 Threes (-180)
Nebraska has been on fire from beyond the arc. The Cornhuskers made 47.4% of their three-pointers against Vanderbilt in the last round and made 14 of their 39 three-point attempts in their opening game versus Troy. Pryce Sandfort alone has made 10 threes so far in this tournament.
Because of this record, the betting sites have put Sandfort’s line for three-pointers made at 3.5. In our opinion, this is very generous. The 21-year-old can definitely make four threes in a game, but he might not get the chance against Iowa.
Iowa’s overall defensive efficiency isn’t spectacular, but you can count on Ben McCollum’s team to defend the three-point line. The Hawkeyes rank 34th in the nation for three-pointers attempted against (19.4 per game) and their opponents’ average three-point percentage is just 32%, which is in the top-third of NCAA teams.
If this game is going to be as close as the sportsbooks predict it will be, Iowa will need to stop players like Pryce Sandfort, so we’re willing to bet on the Hawkeyes closing him down.
- Iowa vs Nebraska Prediction 3: Pryce Sandfort UNDER 3.5 Threes @ –180
Iowa vs Nebraska Start Time
- Start Time: 7:30pm EDT
- Location: Toyota Center (Houston)
- Address: 1510 Polk St, Houston, TX 77002
- TV & Streaming: TSN, TSN+
Iowa could continue their Cinderella run, but Nebraska is the team to watch here. The Cornhuskers are the higher-seeded team for a reason and have a strong record against the Hawkeyes. We expect Nebraska to knock out their Big Ten rivals and to earn a spot in the Elite Eight.