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Our betting expert expects Gustavo Alfaro’s Paraguay to upset Germany’s hopes of winning a record fifth World Cup.
Best predictions for Germany vs Paraguay
Joshua Kimmich to score or assist anytime @ +350
Over 2.5 total goals & BTTS – Yes @ +155
Paraguay to win or tie in normal time @ +254
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Kimmich’s moment to shine
Bayern Munich stalwart Joshua Kimmich remains one of Julian Nagelsmann’s most trusted players. His ability to bridge defence and attack is vital to Die Mannschaft’s rhythm.
The 31-year-old provided two assists in Germany’s 7-1 demolition of Curacao before delivering another commanding display against Ivory Coast. However, the Ecuador midfield effectively neutralised him in the 2-1 loss.
The Germany captain finished the 2025/26 club season with two goals and 13 assists in 49 appearances. Nagelsmann has deployed him as a right-back in this tournament, and he has not disappointed.
Now featuring in his third World Cup, Kimmich will be instrumental in Germany’s first World Cup knockout fixture since they lifted the trophy in 2014. Backing him to contribute with a goal or assist carries clear value.
- Germany vs Paraguay Prediction 1: Joshua Kimmich to score or assist anytime @ +350
High-stakes affair in Boston
Germany have been inconsistent throughout this tournament. Their 2-1 loss to Ecuador exposed vulnerabilities. They have now conceded in six of their last seven games, and in each of their last four.
Since their poor Nations League last year, they have won 11 of their last 12 games. Ten of those have crossed the 2.5 goals mark. Five of Germany’s last six World Cup games produced over 2.5 goals. While their attack has been fruitful, the same cannot be said of their defence.
Paraguay cannot match Germany’s recent winning record. They have won, lost and drawn once each in the group stages. Only their 4-1 loss to the USA saw both teams score.
Since then, the Guaraníes have kept back-to-back clean sheets. They have the tools to trouble Germany on the break. Expect them to find the net in what promises to be an end-to-end contest.
- Germany vs Paraguay Prediction 2: Over 2.5 total goals & BTTS – Yes @ +155
Guaraníes to frustrate Germany
Paraguay were dealt a heavy blow in their opener, as the USA fired four past them. That defeat seemed to awaken Alfaro’s side. They responded by knocking Turkey out with a 1-0 win despite playing the second half with ten men.
All they needed was a point against Australia, who required the same result to progress. The mutual understanding between the two sides saw neither create a single big chance in the goalless stalemate.
Everything is for the taking in their first knockout appearance since 2010. Germany are an organised outfit, but Paraguay will study Ecuador’s approach and take inspiration from it. Their goal will be to keep it level for 90 minutes.
If the match goes to extra-time, anything can happen. Germany would have the edge on penalties thanks to their big-game experience. In normal time, however, expect Paraguay to frustrate the Germans by sitting deep and using their front line to strike on the break.
- Germany vs Paraguay Prediction 3: Paraguay to win or tie in normal time @ +254
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Score prediction: Germany 1-2 Paraguay
Goalscorers prediction: Germany: Kai Havertz; Paraguay: Julio Enciso, Matias Galarza
Germany stormed to an emphatic 7-1 victory over World Cup debutants Curacao in their opener - the tournament’s biggest win so far.
They followed up with a hard-fought 2-1 win over Ivory Coast, courtesy of Deniz Undav’s brace. Their real test, however, came against Ecuador on the final matchday. El Tricolor stunned Die Mannschaft 2-1, handing them their first loss of the tournament.
Germany still finished top of Group E, setting up a highly-anticipated clash with a gritty Paraguay side. Gustavo Alfaro’s men endured a 4-1 thrashing at the hands of co-hosts USA in their opener. They then bounced back with a 1-0 win over Turkey despite being down to ten men.
A goalless draw with Australia on the final day was enough to see them qualify as one of the best third-placed teams. The Guaraníes are motivated after a gruelling group stage journey.
Germany’s morale soared after their narrow win over Ivory Coast, but it took a hit when Ecuador upset them in their final group game. Paraguay are now one of the tournament’s dark horses.
Expect this clash to be far from straightforward for Germany, just like their last World Cup meeting in 2006. Paraguay fell to a 1-0 defeat in the last 16 back then after Oliver Neuville’s 88th-minute strike.
They aim to exploit Germany in transitions. Paraguay hope to continue their run and possibly match their best‑ever World Cup finish, the quarter‑finals in 2010. The winner will face either France or Sweden in the Round of 16.
Probable lineups for Germany vs Paraguay
Germany expected lineup: Neuer, Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Raum, Pavlovic, Nmecha, Sane, Musiala, Wirtz, Havertz
Paraguay expected lineup: Gill, Caceres, Canale, Gomez, Maidana, Alonso, Cubas, Galarza, Bobadilla, Almiron, Enciso