World Cup Winner Odds: Who to Back from the Early Favourites for USA 2026

Betting is already open for football’s 2026 spectacle, with the usual favourites amongst the shortest priced.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

USMNT Making Moves

USMNT have been shifting up and down the betting for some time now, finally settling in at a +3300 price. But as hosts many speculators expect the home crowd advantage to go a long way for the Yanks.

With some standout players across Europe, Pulisic and Musah (AC Milan), Weah and McKennie (Juventus), Robinson (Fulham) and Gio Reyna (Borussia Dortmund) quality can be found in the side, most of whom contend with past and current World Cup winners on a near weekly basis.

Many are looking for the US to improve on their recent finishes, the best being a quarter-final trip in 2002. But beyond this it has been a slew of round of 16 exits, as USMNT struggle to contend with the European and South American powerhouses.

Yet, with world class talent coming, from across the world, home to pull on the Stars and Stripes, joined by the nation at their back anything is possible for this USMNT side.

Are New Managers Influencing Betting Odds?

Among the five favourites to lift the trophy next summer, two have new managers. England are now led by Thomas Tuchel, while Brazil will be guided by Carlo Ancelotti. Both are set to guide their respective countries into a first-ever World Cup.

How those two sides fare remains to be seen, but their first task is to actually reach the finals. Both nations are good value to do so, but their qualification campaigns still have a way to go. Remarkably, Brazil have never failed to qualify for a World Cup. 

Brazil stand out among the tournament favourites, and serial winner Ancelotti is set to lead them. As such, they’re firmly amongst the front runners to win the tournament for a record-extending sixth time. 

Despite Ancelotti’s credentials, there is a level of uncertainty around their chances in 2026. The appointment was certainly eye-catching, but he hasn’t managed internationally since the 1990s. It remains to be seen if he can portray his ideas in the limited time he has with the squad.

Brazil were beaten 4-1 by Argentina during the March international break. This was a stark reflection of their current struggles. Being thumped by a direct rival casts doubt on their value as favourites. 

How quickly Ancelotti settles in could dictate how much value there is in backing them. There’s no doubt they have quality in the ranks, but they need someone to bring it all together. Managing internationally is a very different prospect to club football. That raises some doubts over Ancelotti’s appointment.

Argentina won the 2022 World Cup, while Spain have recently won Euro 2024. Both managers worked their way up to the first team through the youth ranks with their respective countries. 

This goes to show that big names don’t guarantee success; experience on the international stage can very often be key. Don’t be deterred from Brazil if they don’t appoint a household name.

Are There Any Value World Cup Winner Bets?

Finding value in the World Cup winner odds is incredibly difficult. The last nation to win the World Cup outside of what would be classified as a traditional football powerhouse was Uruguay back in 1950. Even then, Uruguay were a major force in the game, having won two of the first four World Cups.

European nations have won four of the last five World Cups, so there could be value in backing those sides. Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Germany are all big-priced outsiders. They’re also among the leading nations in European football, so they certainly can’t be ruled out.

Croatia have reached the last two World Cup semi-finals. They’re a massive price to go all the way in 2026 but could be a value bet to reach the latter stages of the competition. 

There is often at least one surprise team that advances into the competition. It was Morocco in 2022, Croatia in 2018, Costa Rica in 2014 and Ghana/Paraguay in 2010. There are a few candidates for that “dark horse" title this time around, including Ecuador.

They’ve second in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying ahead of Brazil and are priced in triple figures to lift the World Cup. As with Croatia in previous tournaments, backing them to progress into the latter stages could be the way forward with them. 

There could also be some value in England to go all the way. They’ve reached at least the semi-finals in their last four major tournaments. Tuchel’s experience of winning trophies could help them go all the way. They’ve got a star-studded young squad, and the new manager could be the difference maker.

A team to be cautious of is Argentina. Since 1962, no nation has retained the World Cup, which explains why they aren’t the favourites. Of the seven World Cup winners prior to Argentina, France are the only ones to even reach the next edition’s final.