Our betting expert expects Sturm Graz to capitalise on home advantage and take a lead going into the return leg next week.
Best bets for Sturm Graz vs Hearts
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.70 on bet365
- 1x2 - Sturm Graz at odds of 1.75 on bet365
- Hearts to win either half - Yes at odds of 2.32 on bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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A flurry of goals suggests more net bulges
Both teams have enjoyed relative success in front of goal this pre-season. Die Schwoazn have scored 19 goals in their six club friendlies since the end of June. They average 3.2 goals per game, which means they should be confident of breaching the visitors’ defence.
Hearts, meanwhile, have been less prolific, but still good enough to back themselves to score. The Scottish side scored five goals in three friendlies at an average of 1.66 goals per game. Perhaps more importantly, they’ve seen both teams score in each of their last four consecutive outings.
Meanwhile, four of Sturm Graz’s last five matches featured goals at both ends of the pitch. For this reason, it’s worth backing both teams to find the net on Tuesday night.
- Sturm Graz vs Hearts Betting Tip 1: BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.70 on bet365
Home team’s run impossible to ignore
The hosts aren’t strangers to European ties, and they understand what’s required of them, especially when playing at home. The Sturm Graz fans will be pleased to know that their team have suffered just one defeat across their last 20 matches. Having said that, nine of those games ended in a draw, a stat that will encourage the visitors.
However, Hearts are now under a new manager. This change could go two ways: the team could improve quickly, or they might take time to adjust to the new leadership. With a European tie being their first piece of competitive action, Hearts may struggle here, especially since it’s an away fixture.
Hearts’ last four matches resulted in two triumphs and two defeats, a clear indication that they’re not unbreakable. On the road, they’ve won just two out of nine matches since the end of January. Additionally, facing a side that’s been in Europe for the past five years is daunting, which means the Austrians are likely to secure victory in this match.
- Sturm Graz vs Hearts Betting Tip 2: 1x2 - Sturm Graz at odds of 1.75 on bet365
Taking heart from recent performances
While the hosts are likely to come out on top, perhaps taking an early two-goal lead to stun the visitors, Hearts will grow into it. It’s worth noting that the Jam Tarts were narrowly beaten to the Scottish Premiership title on the final day. They enjoyed a positive season, and will hope to build on that in Europe.
They shouldn’t be completely written off in terms of giving the hosts problems. Playing with their typical confidence, the Scottish team could score, reducing the goal difference before they return home. The visitors won at least one half of football in each of their recent two outings.
With Sturm Graz drawing a half against Pogon Szczecin the last time out, Vrancken’s team will try to win at least one half of the match. While success is not guaranteed, it is a reasonable option considering how well Hearts played last season.
- Sturm Graz vs Hearts Betting Tip 3: Hearts to win either half - Yes at odds of 2.32 on bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Sturm Graz 2-1 Hearts
- Goalscorers prediction: Sturm Graz: Axel Kayombo, Seedy Jatta - Hearts: Claudio Braga
After finishing the Austrian Bundesliga in second place, Sturm Graz have earned a spot in the Champions League second round of qualifying. Die Schwoazn aren’t strangers to European competitions, which means there will be a certain level of comfort on Tuesday. The Austrians made the UCL or Europa League group or league phase in each of the last five seasons.
They will be confident as they start their qualifying journey, especially since they’re at their Merkur-Arena base. Fabio Ingolitsch's men have been decent in pre-season, and they’re eager to register their fourth consecutive win in midweek. While they drew too many games at home last term, that’s something they will want to rectify, starting with this crucial encounter.
Hearts narrowly missed out on the Scottish Premiership last season, losing it on the final day to Celtic. However, the silver lining is that they’re in the hunt for Champions League qualification for the first time in 20 years. Following Derek McInnes' departure to Glasgow Rangers in June, Wouter Vrancken was appointed as the new coach for Hearts.
This fixture will be Vrancken’s first competitive one, and his immediate attention should be on Hearts’ poor away record. If that’s anything to go by, the Jam Tarts are in for a long afternoon in Austria on Tuesday. However, if they can keep the score close, they could turn the situation around during next week's home match.
Probable lineups for Sturm Graz vs Hearts
Sturm Graz expected lineup: Khudyakov, Vallci, Mitchell, Koller, Hodl, Weinhandl, Gorenc Stankovic, Soglo, Kiteishvili, Kayombo, Jatta
Hearts expected lineup: Schwolow, Altena, Fagan-Walcott, McCart, Milne, McEntee, Renaud, Miller, Guendouzi, Kyziridis, Braga