Our betting expert expects Los Blancos to edge out their local rivals in a game that will see both teams score.
Best bets for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
- Real Madrid to win at odds of 1.95 on bet365
- Second half - Both teams to score at odds of 2.75 on bet365
- Fede Valverde to score anytime at odds of 3.50 on bet365
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Derby delight for Real Madrid
The Madrid derby is always a huge occasion, but this one is much more important for the hosts. While Simeone will field a strong lineup this weekend, the outcome will have little impact on Atletico’s overall prospects. By contrast, Real Madrid must secure three points, with little margin for error in the title race.
Atleti haven’t won at the Santiago Bernabeu since a 1-0 victory in the 2015/16 season. The most recent clash between the two at this ground finished in a 2-1 victory for the home team in the Champions League last season.
For the first time in a long while, it seems like Real Madrid are building significant momentum. The 5-1 aggregate victory over Man City has greatly improved their morale. They’ve won four consecutive matches across all competitions.
With Kylian Mbappe fit and likely to start, they can also count on the services of La Liga’s top scorer again. That suggests they are worth backing against an Atleti side that have failed to win 69% of their away league games.
- Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Bet 1: Real Madrid to win at odds of 1.95 on bet365
Goals expected in the second half
Eight of the nine Madrid derbies since the start of 2024 have seen both teams score. This is a fixture that has become more exciting in recent years. That’s largely due to Atletico Madrid implementing a more offensive style of play.
This clash could be relatively open, too, given that the hosts are under pressure to win. Moreover, Real Madrid have scored 55% and conceded 62% of their league goals after the break. Given these factors, an entertaining second half seems likely.
Los Rojiblancos also tend to score and concede more often later in their La Liga games. In fact, 62% of the goals they’ve let in away from home have come after the 60th minute.
Those trends point to value in backing both teams to score in the second half with an implied probability of 38%.
- Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Bet 2: Second half - Both teams to score at odds of 2.75 on bet365
In-form Valverde to strike again
One player who has really risen to the occasion for Real Madrid over the past fortnight is Fede Valverde. His 95th-minute winner against Celta Vigo earlier this month already was a major turning point for Los Blancos.
The Uruguayan backed that up with an outstanding hat-trick in the first leg against Man City. He scored another fine goal against Elche last weekend. Even in the second leg against City, his forward runs caused problems, and he could have added to his tally.
Valverde’s current hot streak suggests he could be one of the main goal threats in this match. He has clearly been given the freedom to move forward and support the frontline in the current midfield set-up. Along with Vinicius, he has been one of the main beneficiaries following the change in coach.
Atletico Madrid have conceded at least twice in four of their last five matches. With space to exploit, Valverde seems to offer value as an anytime goalscorer bet at long odds.
- Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Bet 3: Fede Valverde to score anytime at odds of 3.50 on bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe, Fede Valverde - Atletico Madrid: Ademola Lookman
Both sides travelled to England in midweek to finish their Champions League round-of-16 ties. Real Madrid secured a 2-1 victory away to Manchester City, while Atletico Madrid suffered a 3-2 defeat against Tottenham. Despite Atleti’s defeat, both clubs sealed progress into the next round.
In terms of La Liga, Los Blancos remain the only team capable of catching the leaders, Barcelona. Alvaro Arbeloa’s side have beaten Celta Vigo and Elche in their last two games. However, they’re still facing the consequences of back-to-back defeats prior to that.
Diego Simeone has frequently rotated his Atleti team in the league recently, given that a top-four finish is essentially secured. They’ve still managed to secure four straight wins despite that, including a 1-0 victory over Getafe last weekend.
Probable lineups for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid expected lineup: Lunin, Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold, Thiago, Tchouameni, Valverde, Guler, Vinicius, Mbappe
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Musso, Ruggeri, Hancko, Pubill, Molina, Lookman, Cardoso, Llorente, Simeone, Alvarez, Sorloth