Our betting expert expects Real Madrid to win a low-scoring contest in what’s set to be their final match under Alvaro Arbeloa.
Best bets for Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
- Both teams to score - No at odds of 2.20 with bet365
- First half - Under 1.5 goals at odds of 1.65 with bet365
- Real Madrid to win & Under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.60 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Few goals on the final weekend at the Bernabeu
There is nothing at stake in this match, so it’s unlikely to be a game played at any great tempo. Recent Real Madrid fixtures point towards a low-scoring affair. All of the last four outings for Los Blancos have ended with two or fewer goals, and only one team scoring.
Both teams have scored in only one of the previous five meetings between these clubs. One of Real Madrid’s best results of the whole season came in the reverse fixture, when they won 3-0. They restricted the Basques to only 0.84 xG in that encounter.
Athletic Club’s attack has failed to fire this season. They have averaged only 1.11 goals per game in La Liga. The visitors will also have to cope without Nico Williams at the Bernabeu, following his latest injury setback.
Overall, backing at least one of these teams to fail to score offers value.
- Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Bet 1:Both teams to score - No at odds of 2.20 with bet365
Little action before the break
Real Madrid’s league games this season have tended to open up after the interval. Just 42% of their goals scored, and 39% of their goals conceded, have come in the first half.
That trend has become clearer as the campaign has progressed. Only one of their previous eight La Liga fixtures has produced more than one first-half goal. That was their recent trip to Barcelona, when the leaders produced two moments of real quality in the early stages.
All of Athletic’s previous six matches have featured one or fewer goals in the first half. They’re highly unlikely to take many risks in the opening stages of this game. Given that, backing under 1.5 first-half goals could be the way to go with an implied probability of 60.6%.
- Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Bet 2: First half - Under 1.5 goals at odds of 1.65 with bet365
Real Madrid to sign off with a win
With the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Fede Valverde fit again, Real Madrid should field their strongest lineup in many weeks. Despite what will go down as a very poor season overall, they have still won 70% of their league games. They’ll better their points tally from last term if they triumph in this match.
Athletic’s campaign has been every bit as disappointing. They’ve recorded 45 points and are set for a mid-table finish, having finished fourth with 70 points last season. Los Leones have lost all five matches against top-three opponents, scoring just once across those games.
Real Madrid’s attack has not clicked frequently enough to suggest they will secure a crucial win. All of their previous eight league outings have ended with three or fewer goals in total. Los Blancos’ three most recent victories have all come via 1-0 or 2-0 margins.
Given that, backing Real Madrid to win and under 3.5 goals appeals with an implied probability of 38.5%.
- Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Bet 3: Real Madrid to win & Under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.60 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Real Madrid 2-0 Athletic Club
- Goalscorers prediction - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham
Real Madrid’s narrow remaining title ambitions ended when they lost El Clasico 2-0 earlier this month. That ended their chances of claiming some silverware, but they have won both fixtures since. Arbeloa’s side defeated bottom club Real Oviedo 2-0 at the Bernabeu, before winning 1-0 at Sevilla last Sunday.
This is also the final match of Ernesto Valverde’s third spell as boss of Athletic Club. A 1-1 home draw against Celta Vigo in their last match ended their ambitions of qualifying for Europe. Los Leones have finished the season poorly, with only four points from their last five games.
Probable lineups for Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, F. Garcia, Huijsen, Rudiger, Carvajal, Valverde, Tchouameni, Vinicius, Bellingham, Brahim, Mbappe
Athletic Club expected lineup: Simon, Boiro, Laporte, Yeray, Gorosabel, Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar, Berenguer, Navarro, I. Williams, Guruzeta