Our betting expert expects an entertaining match to feature an early goal for the hosts but finish all square.
Best bets for Osasuna vs Barcelona
- First half - Osasuna to score over 0.5 goals at odds of 2.20 with bet365
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.30 with bet365
- Draw & Both teams to score at odds of 4.33 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Osasuna to strike before the break
Barcelona were beaten 4-2 on this ground last season. Osasuna tend to be competitive in this fixture. They’ve scored eight goals across the last four meetings in Pamplona.
This term, they’ve made a habit of starting quickly in front of their own fans. In fact, they’ve netted 54% of their home league goals before the interval. They’ve netted 10 times between the 31st minute and the half-time whistle.
Meanwhile, Barcelona conceded 62% of their away goals in the first half, so Alessio Lisci’s team will fancy their chances of scoring early. They’ll be encouraged by the absence of Jules Kounde at right-back for the visitors due to suspension. Pacy winger Victor Munoz should threaten on Osasuna’s left flank.
A little bit of complacency could also creep in for the visitors, with the title race all but over. Backing Osasuna to score over 0.5 goals in the first half seems good with an implied probability of 45.5%.
- Osasuna vs Barcelona Bet 1: First half - Osasuna to score over 0.5 goals at odds of 2.20 with bet365
Goals to flow at El Sadar
This should be a very different match from Barcelona’s trip to Getafe last weekend. Jose Bordalas’ side were always going to play defensively against the leaders. However, Lisci will want Osasuna to play positively to create opportunities for their 16-goal striker, Ante Budimir.
Los Rojillos are averaging 1.75 goals per home game this season. Only five teams in the Spanish top flight can better that record. They need victories in order to push for a place in Europe, which should help open up this contest.
Barcelona’s league games this term have served up 3.55 goals per 90 minutes. Meanwhile, their four most recent trips to El Sadar have averaged four goals per game. That also points to value in backing over 3.5 goals with an implied probability of 44.4%.
- Osasuna vs Barcelona Bet 2: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.30 with bet365
Score draw to delay Barca’s title celebrations
If Barcelona fail to win this match, they will have the chance to win the title in El Clasico next weekend. There’s good reason to assume that may be the case, given Osasuna have only lost twice at home this term. Lisci’s side are averaging exactly two points per game at El Sadar, which is the best record outside the top four.
However, they have been drawing frequently, as 41% of their games across all competitions since the start of the year have finished level. Both teams scored in all but one of those draws.
There’s a chance Barcelona may have Raphinha fit to play some part in this game. That will boost the away side’s attacking threat. However, they’ve still been scoring plenty, with Flick’s men having netted at least once in all of their La Liga matches.
Both teams have scored in all seven of Osasuna’s home games against sides currently in the top half. Backing a repeat on Saturday in a drawn game could be the smart bet.
- Osasuna vs Barcelona Bet 3: Draw & Both teams to score at odds of 4.33 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Osasuna 2-2 Barcelona
- Goalscorers prediction - Osasuna: Ante Budimir, Victor Munoz - Barcelona: Ferran Torres, Fermin Lopez
Osasuna have been hovering in mid-table for much of the season. They eased any remaining relegation fears with a 2-1 comeback victory over Sevilla in their last match. A run of just one defeat in five games has left them with an outside chance of pushing for European qualification.
Barcelona are now only five points away from clinching the title. They can win La Liga this weekend if they beat El Sadar and Real Madrid drop points on Sunday.
A run of nine straight victories in the Spanish top flight has all but ended the title fight. Despite injuries to Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, they won 2-0 at Getafe last weekend.
Probable lineups for Osasuna vs Barcelona
Osasuna expected lineup: Herrera, Galan, Catena, Boyomo, Rosier, Moncayola, I. Munoz, V. Munoz, Oroz, Ruben, Budimir
Barcelona expected lineup: J. Garcia, Cancelo, Martin, Cubarsi, E. Garcia, Gavi, Pedri, Fermin, Olmo, Bardghji, Ferran