Our betting expert expects a resurgent Napoli to overtake Massimiliano Allegri’s AC Milan with a victory at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Best bets for Napoli vs AC Milan
- Napoli to win, at odds of 2.55 with bet365
- BTTS – Yes & Over 2.5 total goals, at odds of 2.62 with bet365
- Scott McTominay to score or assist, at odds of 2.87 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Partenopei to deny Rossoneri league double
Napoli avenged their earlier league defeat to Milan by beating them 2-0 in the Supercoppa Italiana semi-finals. The Rossoneri had won 2-1 at San Siro in the reverse fixture last September.
Momentum currently favours the reigning champions. They are improving their position in Serie A, and just one point separates them from AC Milan. That is a gap that will drive Antonio Conte to push for victory. A draw would make little difference for either side.
Milan revived their title hopes with a hard-fought win over Torino after losing to Lazio two matches ago. Their away form could be decisive. Three of their last five road wins have come against teams sitting ninth or lower. Both Roma and Lazio have secured points against them during that period.
Massimiliano Allegri is determined to extend Milan’s advantage over Napoli and move closer to Inter Milan. However, the circumstances favour the hosts. Supported by an enthusiastic crowd at the Maradona and possessing an almost fully fit squad, Napoli should defeat the Rossoneri in another close contest.
- Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction 1: Napoli to win, at odds of 2.55 with bet365
Total entertainment at the Maradona
Napoli’s first clean sheet victory in 12 competitive outings came against Cagliari last time out. Conte’s defence have conceded exactly 30 goals in as many Serie A games, keeping only 10 clean sheets all season.
Their defensive vulnerability could be problematic. However, Milan have not exactly been efficient in attack either. The visitors have scored only 47 league goals this season, which is just one goal more than Napoli’s total of 46.
The Partenopei have found the net in each of their last 10 competitive fixtures. Milan cannot boast the same, having failed to score in each of their last two defeats.
Half of the previous 10 competitive meetings between these teams have resulted in both teams scoring. The stakes are incredibly high for this match, and this result directly impacts the title competition. We expect both teams to score in a fixture that should produce a minimum of three total goals.
- Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction 2: BTTS – Yes & Over 2.5 total goals, at odds of 2.62 with bet365
McTominay provides midfield quality
Scott McTominay led Napoli to the league title last year. He is performing well again, although not at the exact same standard. The versatile midfielder has registered 11 goals and four assists across 36 appearances for his club this season.
McTominay missed half of February due to a tendonitis injury. He returned to play during the 2-1 victory against Lecce in mid-March. He then made an immediate impact against Cagliari during the following match, scoring within the first 90 seconds to secure a 1-0 victory.
The international break was less successful. Scotland lost both friendlies to Japan and the Ivory Coast, each by 1-0. McTominay failed to make a difference, giving him the perfect opportunity to rebound.
Alongside Kevin De Bruyne, the Scot is Conte’s talisman in midfield. Backing him to dominate his midfield opponents and contribute either a goal or an assist provides excellent value.
- Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction 3: Scott McTominay to score or assist, at odds of 2.87 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Napoli 2-1 AC Milan
- Goalscorers prediction: Napoli: Scott McTominay, Rasmus Hojlund; AC Milan: Rafael Leao
Napoli have endured a mixed campaign. They currently sit third in Serie A, trailing AC Milan by just one point. A victory in this match would move them two points ahead of the Rossoneri. However, a win is certainly not guaranteed against a Milan team who have lost fewer games than anyone else this season (3).
The Partenopei enter this round following a sequence of four consecutive victories. Before the international break, they defeated Cagliari 1-0, following three identical 2-1 victories over Lecce, Torino, and Hellas Verona. Their home record provides the foundation for their success, as Napoli remain the only undefeated team at home in Serie A this season.
Milan, by contrast, have been far from consistent. They have won only three of their last six matches. In their latest outing, the Rossoneri overcame Torino 3-2 in a thrilling clash, but a 1-0 defeat at Lazio in their last away trip exposed vulnerabilities. That defeat at the Stadio Olimpico also ended an eight-match unbeaten sequence away from home.
Napoli possess home advantage and the momentum of an undefeated stadium record. Milan, despite their defensive organisation and quality, face a difficult challenge against a team who consistently avoid defeat at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
With Inter stumbling, both sides sense an opportunity to close the gap at the top. We expect the Partenopei to win a closely contested match and secure a crucial victory in the competition for second place.
Probable lineups for Napoli vs AC Milan
Napoli expected lineup: Milinkovic-Savic, Beukema, Buongiorno, Mathias Olivera, Politano, Gilmour, Lobotka, Gutierrez, McTominay, De Bruyne, Hojlund
AC Milan expected lineup: Maignan, Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic, Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Jashari, Estupinan, Pulisic, Fullkrug