Our betting expert expects a convincing home victory in what seems set to be Pep Guardiola’s final game as City boss.
Best bets for Manchester City vs Aston Villa
- First half - Manchester City at odds of 1.72 on bet365
- Manchester City to score over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10 on bet365
- Both teams to score - No at odds of 2.37 on bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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City to make a flying start
Were it not for news of Guardiola’s departure, Manchester City may have struggled to motivate themselves for this game. They are likely frustrated that they were unable to take the title race to the final weekend. However, it should now be a big occasion, with long-serving duo John Stones and Bernardo Silva also set to depart.
City have excelled in the first half of their Premier League games this season. They have a goal difference of +30 before the break. The second-placed side have been leading at half-time in 72% of their home fixtures.
Emery may well rest some of his star players following the trip to Istanbul. His team have tended to start slowly in away matches this season. Villa have been ahead at the interval only twice across 18 away Premier League matches.
Given that, backing Man City to lead at half-time seems good with an implied probability of 55.6%.
- Manchester City vs Aston Villa Bet 1: First half - Manchester City at odds of 1.72 on bet365
Goals to flow as Villa suffer Europa League hangover
Man City have scored three goals in three of their four Premier League matches so far in May. Erling Haaland has found form again, scoring eight times in nine appearances in all competitions since the last international break. Jeremy Doku has also excelled, scoring five goals and recording two assists over his past nine games.
That should ensure this is a difficult afternoon for what may be a tired Villa defence. Even during the successful Emery era, the Birmingham side have struggled significantly on this ground. They’ve conceded 12 goals across their last four visits to the Etihad Stadium.
After many key games in the Premier League and the Europa League, Villa will struggle to find their usual intensity. Backing City to score over 2.5 goals offers value.
- Manchester City vs Aston Villa Bet 2: Manchester City to score over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10 on bet365
Visiting attack to misfire at the Etihad
Man City’s improved defensive record has been a factor in their ability to at least compete for the title this term. They’ve only conceded 0.89 goals per game in the Premier League. That’s compared to 1.16 goals against per 90 minutes in the 2024/25 season.
Four of their past five victories have come to nil. Meanwhile, Guardiola’s team have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home league fixtures.
Despite clinching a top-five finish, Villa have not been prolific in attack. They average just 1.22 goals per game on the road. The Villans rank only 13th in the English top flight, with an xG total of 46.4.
Given that, backing at least one of these teams to fail to get on the scoresheet seems like a smart bet.
- Manchester City vs Aston Villa Bet 3: Both teams to score - No at odds of 2.37 on bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Manchester City 4-0 Aston Villa
- Goalscorers prediction - Manchester City: Erling Haaland x2, Jeremy Doku, John Stones
Manchester City’s ambitions of taking the Premier League title race to the final weekend ended on Tuesday night. Their 1-1 draw at Bournemouth confirmed Arsenal as the champions. City had won nine of their previous 10 games across all competitions.
News of Guardiola’s imminent departure leaked in the hours before the trip to Dorset. The long-serving City boss refused to confirm he was leaving when asked after the game. However, this match is expected to be his last.
Aston Villa don’t have anything to play for, as they clinched Champions League qualification with a 4-2 win over Liverpool. Unai Emery’s side have only picked up one point from their previous three league outings. They face a quick turnaround on Sunday following the Europa League final in midweek.
Probable lineups for Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Manchester City expected lineup: Donnarumma, Nunes, Stones, Guehi, O’Reilly, Rodri, Silva, Semenyo, Foden, Doku, Haaland
Aston Villa expected lineup: Bizot, Cash, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen, Bogarde, Luiz, McGinn, Barkley, Rogers, Abraham