Mallorca vs Real Madrid predictions: Vinicius to strike in away win

Our betting expert expects the visitors to make a fast start and ultimately win the game with Vinicius Junior on target.

Best bets for Mallorca vs Real Madrid

• First half - Real Madrid at odds of 2.05 with bet365
• Vinicius Junior to score anytime at odds of 2.40 with bet365
• Both teams to score at odds of 1.75 with bet365

All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

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Real Madrid to make a flying start in Palma

Mallorca have consistently failed to perform in the first half of matches this season. They’ve scored just 35% of their league goals before the interval. Meanwhile, they’ve conceded 57% of their total goals in the first 45 minutes.

That trend has been particularly striking at home. Their first-half goal difference is -7 in front of their own fans. However, their second-half goal difference in Palma stands at an impressive +10.

Real Madrid take momentum into the match following five straight victories across all competitions. Arbeloa also has the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham available now following recent injuries. Given Mallorca’s miserable record before the break, backing Los Blancos to be ahead at half-time appears to offer value.

• Mallorca vs Real Madrid Bet 1: First half - Real Madrid 2.05 with bet365

In-form Vinicius to fire again

Fede Valverde and Vinicius Junior have been the two players to benefit most from Arbeloa’s appointment in January. The Uruguayan is suspended here, but Vinicius should start, despite travelling back from Florida in midweek.

The 25-year-old has found his best level again following the change in the dugout. He has netted 11 times in 17 matches since the departure of Xabi Alonso, with whom he had a strained relationship. That includes braces in his last two outings against Man City and Atletico Madrid.

With Mbappe potentially not ready to play the full 90 minutes, the onus will be on Vinicius to lead the attack. He had five shots, four of which hit the target, in the Madrid derby last time out. Backing the forward to score again could be the smart move on Saturday.

• Mallorca vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Vinicius Junior to score anytime at odds of 2.40 with bet365

Strugglers to get on the scoresheet

Mallorca have been solid defensively in recent seasons, but that hasn’t been the case this term. They’ve conceded 1.62 goals per game in La Liga, which is the fourth-worst record. Their xGA tally of 49.4 also sees them rank in the bottom three.

That suggests there’s plenty of reason for Real Madrid’s strikers to be looking forward to this game. However, there have been offensive improvements in Mallorca since Demichelis was appointed.

The main shift has seen summer signing Pablo Torre brought back into the team in the number 10 role. The ex-Barcelona youngster has responded by scoring in back-to-back games. He’ll offer support to striker Vedat Muriqi, who is La Liga’s second-highest scorer with 18 goals, five behind Mbappe.

Backing both teams to score seems good with an implied probability of 57.1%. That bet has come through in each of Mallorca’s last three league games, as well as all of Real Madrid’s last three.

• Mallorca vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Both teams to score at odds of 1.75 with bet365

Our analysis: Form of both teams

• Score prediction - Mallorca 1-2 Real Madrid
• Goalscorers prediction - Mallorca: Pablo Torre - Real Madrid: Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe

Real Madrid enjoyed a fantastic fortnight prior to the international break. They kept their La Liga title hopes alive with three straight wins over Celta Vigo, Elche, and Atletico Madrid. Alvaro Arbeloa’s side also saw off Man City 5-1 on aggregate to progress in the Champions League.

They still trail leaders Barcelona by four points in the Spanish title race, though. Only a victory will suffice in the Balearic Islands this weekend.

Mallorca recently made a coaching change with Martin Demichelis replacing Jagoba Arrasate. They’ve secured four points across their first four games under the Argentine. A 2-1 win over Espanyol was a major positive last month, but they’ve since lost 2-1 to fellow strugglers Elche.

Probable lineups for Mallorca vs Real Madrid

Mallorca expected lineup: Roman, Mojica, Valjent, Raillo, Maffeo, Mascarell, Costa, Joseph, Torre, Virgili, Muriqi

Real Madrid expected lineup: Lunin, Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold, Tchouameni, Pitarch, Guler, Bellingham, Vinicius, Mbappe