Our betting expert predicts Arne Slot’s Liverpool to crash out of the Champions League to title holders PSG for the second consecutive season.
Best bets for Liverpool vs PSG
- Over 3.5 total goals, at odds of 2.10 on bet365
- PSG to win the first half, at odds of 2.90 on bet365
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score anytime, at odds of 3.20 in bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Anfield to witness goals
Liverpool’s Champions League journey has been eventful. Four of their five home matches in the competition this term featured over 3.5 goals, with each of their last three here crossing the 2.5 mark.
The Reds average 2.2 goals scored per Champions League game this term. Yet history is not on their side. They have been eliminated from nine of their previous 10 European ties when trailing by two goals in the first leg.
Meanwhile, PSG have scored two or more goals in five successive Champions League outings. Each of their last three away UCL fixtures has seen over 2.5 goals. The Parisians are in exceptional goalscoring form, scoring 17 goals in their last five games.
Liverpool will undoubtedly attack from the outset, making this an open contest. However, PSG are not a team to sit back and absorb pressure either. Over 3.5 goals in total is a rational pick.
- Liverpool vs PSG Bet 1: Over 3.5 total goals, at odds of 2.10 on bet365
Parisians crunch through the first period
In each of their last three competitive losses, Liverpool started poorly. Brighton, Manchester City and PSG all took control early. However, against Fulham, they started strongly with both goals arriving before the interval.
A strong start is essential against PSG if they are to overturn their first-leg deficit. Liverpool have won 16 of their last 20 European home games, but the holders have proven to be a notch above.
PSG have scored before half-time in five of their last six Champions League matches. In their previous 12 away UCL games, they have never trailed at the break.
PSG have won each of their last three European matches when leading at the interval. Liverpool will start with a sense of urgency, but PSG look the more composed side. Expect the Parisians to edge ahead before the break.
- Liverpool vs PSG Bet 2: PSG to win the first half, at odds of 2.90 on bet365
Kvara magic on Merseyside
Kvaratskhelia is arguably PSG’s most in-form player alongside Desire Doue. The former Napoli star has returned to his brilliant best at a very crucial stage of the season.
The 25-year-old is joint fifth in the Champions League scoring charts, level with Erling Haaland. He could add to his eight-goal tally when PSG visit Anfield, where he was ineffective in last season’s round of 16.
Kvara has 12 goals and eight assists in 35 appearances across Ligue 1 and the Champions League. In this competition, he has now scored in four consecutive outings. That run includes a composed close-range finish to seal the 2-0 win at Parc des Princes last time out.
The Georgian is expected to make a difference once again. His ability to score and link with midfield to create chances makes him a grave threat to Liverpool’s qualification hopes.
Liverpool vs PSG Bet 3: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score anytime, at odds of 3.20 in bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Liverpool 1-3 PSG
- Goalscorers prediction: Liverpool: Dominik Szoboszlai; PSG: Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Desire Doue
Six-time European champions Liverpool are on course to be eliminated by PSG for the second straight season. The Reds bounced back from their first-leg defeat at Parc des Princes with a 2-0 win over Fulham – their first victory in four competitive games.
Arne Slot’s men were overwhelmed in the opening leg, with goals from Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia deciding the result. They will be glad to play this second leg on home turf, with a first semi-final appearance since 2021/22 at stake.
PSG hold all the cards. They enter this clash fresh off a week-long break, unlike their hosts. Their crucial league decider against second-placed Lens was postponed to accommodate their European commitments.
Since going 3-1 down to Monaco in Ligue 1 in early March, PSG have been fantastic, winning all five of their subsequent outings. Three of those victories came against English opposition, each by two or more goals.
A win at Anfield would pitch them against either Bayern Munich or Real Madrid. PSG are concrete favourites to reach a third successive Champions League semi-final - a record for a French club.
Probable lineups for Liverpool vs PSG
Liverpool expected lineup: Mamardashvili, Gomez, Van Dijk, Konate, Frimpong, Gravenberch, MacAllister, Kerkez, Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Ekitike
PSG expected lineup: Safonov, Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes, Neves, Vitinha, Zaire-Emery, Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia