Our betting expert expects Italy, led by the iconic Gennaro Gattuso, to take a step closer to the first World Cup final in three editions.
Best bets for Italy vs Northern Ireland
- Over 2.5 total goals at odds of 1.80 on bet365
- Both teams to score - Yes at odds of 2.37 on bet365
- Over 1.5 goals in second half at odds of 2.00 on bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Goals expected in Bergamo
Italy’s matches have produced plenty of goals recently. Nine of their last 11 matches featured over 2.5 goals, including six of their eight qualification games. Gennaro Gattuso’s men have been actively scoring goals throughout.
Mateo Retegui has been instrumental for the Azzurri. The Argentine-born marksman has scored five goals across eight qualifiers. Italy hope he can deliver again.
Northern Ireland’s last four qualifiers all stayed under 2.5 goals. However, the stakes are higher this time around, with their first World Cup in 40 years on the line. It would be surprising if either Isaac Price or Dion Charles failed to score. Italy’s defence conceded four goals in their previous qualifier.
Both sides have everything to play for in this eliminator. Expect them to go at each other from the outset, making this an open contest in the race for qualification.
- Italy vs Northern Ireland Prediction 1: Over 2.5 total goals at odds of 1.80 on bet365
Net to bulge for both sides
Italy scored in all but one of their qualifying fixtures in Group I. The only loss was a 3-0 defeat to Norway in their opening qualifier. They kept four clean sheets in those eight games, including in two of their last three. However, the Azzurri are not as defensively solid as the Italian sides of the past.
Gattuso’s men conceded a whopping four goals to Norway at the San Siro last time out. This allowed Stale Solbakken’s men to automatically qualify as group leaders for their first World Cup tournament since 1998 France.
Northern Ireland know what is at stake. They will be eager to get on the scoresheet as many times as possible. Yet, their inefficiency in attack is glaring. They have scored only once across their final three qualifiers. That strike came against Group A bottom-dwellers Luxembourg on the final matchday.
Given Italy’s recent loss, the visitors may feel they can cause an upset and start their calendar year on a high. Both teams should find the back of the net in what is expected to be a hard-fought contest.
- Italy vs Northern Ireland Prediction 2: Both teams to score at odds of 2.37 on bet365
Second period to spark into life
Italy crumbled late against Erling Haaland and company in the final qualifier at the San Siro. Three of the four goals conceded arrived in the final 15 minutes, exposing their inability to focus when the pressure mounts.
Yet, they also know how to strike late. Two very late goals sealed the 2-0 victory over Moldova before the Norway meeting. Another two came in the final 15 minutes against Israel at Stadio Friuli. Gattuso’s men conserve energy and then usually bloom at the end.
Northern Ireland face a possession-heavy side that play cautiously before creating chances in the final-third. O’Neill’s men will need to exploit transitions.
This has the makings of a cautious contest. Both teams are likely to feel each other out before opening up in the second period. The side that score the most second-half goals will probably book a date with either Wales or Bosnia & Herzegovina.
- Italy vs Northern Ireland Prediction 3: Over 1.5 goals in second half at odds of 2.00 on bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Italy 2-1 Northern Ireland
- Goalscorers prediction: Italy: Mateo Retegui, Gianluca Mancini; Northern Ireland: Isaac Price
Italy are no strangers to World Cup play-offs over the past decade, having missed each of the last two final editions. They are one of the 16 teams vying for victory in the play-off semi-finals, with only four qualification spots available.
The Azzurri won all but two of their qualifying matches in Group I. Those are their only defeats across their last nine matches. Norway defeated Italy both times in the group stage, 3-0 at home and 4-1 away. As a result, Gennaro Gattuso’s men had to settle for a play-off spot.
Northern Ireland finished third in their qualifying group, but reached this stage after winning their Nations League group. The visitors in Bergamo face a mammoth task. Italy are rarely easy opponents, despite play-off exits to Sweden and North Macedonia in 2017 and 2022, respectively.
Michael O’Neill’s side have been lacklustre in the qualifying campaign. They netted just seven times across six matches.
Italy and Northern Ireland have met eight times, including two international friendlies. Their only draw came in Belfast in their last World Cup qualifying campaign. It was a goalless stalemate that sent Italy into the play-offs.
Italy have won all other head-to-heads. The Green and White Army’s sole victory came in the 1958 World Cup qualifiers.
The stakes have never been higher for Italy, who risk missing their third consecutive World Cup. The visitors haven’t appeared at a finals since 1986. With the home fans behind them, expect the Azzurri to edge past Northern Ireland in a closely-fought eliminator at Stadio di Bergamo.
Probable lineups for Italy vs Northern Ireland
Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma, Mancini, Bastoni, Buongiorno, Bellanova, Barella, Locatelli, Frattesi, Dimarco, Retegui, Raspadori
Northern Ireland expected lineup: Bailey, Hume, McNair, Brown, Lewis, McConville, Charles, McCann, Saville, Price, Charles