Our betting expert expects Carlos Vicens’ Braga to make it to their first Europa League final since 2010/11 by beating Freiburg.
Best bets for Freiburg vs Braga
- Both teams to score, at odds of 1.85 on bet365
- Braga to win or draw, at odds of 2.00 on bet365
- Over 2.5 total goals, at odds of 2.00 on bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Freiburg 1-2 Braga
- Goalscorers prediction: Freiburg: Vincenzo Grifo; Braga: Ricardo Horta, Joao Moutinho
Following a loss to Braga in the opening leg and a draw with Wolfsburg, Freiburg missed their chance to secure Champions League qualification. Julian Schuster’s only route to anything more than a Conference League spot is via the Europa League trophy.
That is easier said than done. The 1-1 home draw with the Wolves marked their fourth game without a win, although it halted a three-match losing streak. The Breisgau-Brasilianer haven’t won a match since they defeated Bundesliga bottom club Heidenheim in mid-March.
Braga, meanwhile, are unbeaten in back-to-back games. That streak began with a 2-1 victory over Freiburg last week. They then secured a 1-1 draw against Portuguese team Estoril.
Carlos Vicens’s team have lost only twice across their last 20 Europa League outings. However, their away form in the competition is inconsistent. They managed just three victories across their last 10 away games.
Mario Dorgeles’ stoppage-time winning goal gave Braga a narrow 2-1 first-leg lead. The visitors are expected to push Freiburg to the limit, leaving them ultimately disappointed in this season-defining clash.
Probable lineups for Freiburg vs Braga
Freiburg expected lineup: Atubolu, True, Ginter, Lienhart, Makengo, Eggestein, Manzambi, Beste, Suzuki, Grifo, Matanovic
Braga expected lineup: Hornicek, Lagerbielke, Carvalho, Lelo, Gomez, Gorby, Grillitsch, Martinez, Zalazar, Victor, Dorgeles
Banking both sides to find the net
Freiburg are enduring a difficult finish to the season, as they are now winless in four consecutive matches. However, they have failed to score only once in their last 11 competitive away trips, which was a 4-0 Bundesliga defeat to Dortmund.
In the Europa League, Freiburg have won six straight and are unbeaten in three home matches. They consistently score goals in front of their own supporters. The last time they failed to score at home was during a 1-0 loss to Union Berlin in mid-March.
Braga have consistently scored in each of their last 11 competitive games. The last time they failed to score was in the Round of 16, when they suffered a first-leg defeat to Ferencvaros. Seven of those 11 games have resulted in both teams scoring.
Historical trends suggest a tense encounter. Both teams will attempt to score as early as possible. Backing both sides to score in this high-stakes second-leg decider offers good value.
- Freiburg vs Braga Betting Tip 1: Both teams to score, at odds of 1.85 on bet365
Double chance favours the Arsenalistas
Freiburg’s four-match winning streak in mid-April raised hopes of a title double. They were eventually eliminated from the DFB-Pokal by Stuttgart, and their first-leg deficit against Braga is a significant concern.
Freiburg have also failed to secure a Champions League spot. Schuster’s team possess limited momentum, having failed to defeat relegation-threatened Wolfsburg at home last matchday.
The Arsenalistas arrive in Germany with confidence despite a poor run of form in the Portuguese top flight. Braga were able to win only their second victory in five games thanks to Mario Dorgeles’ late strike against Freiburg.
Both teams are expected to score goals. But Braga have the momentum in their favour. Their focus is firmly fixed on securing the first major European trophy in their 105-year history.
- Freiburg vs Braga Betting Tip 2: Braga to win or draw, at odds of 2.00 on bet365
No dearth of goals here
Freiburg and Braga finished level on 17 points in the league phase. In eight games, Freiburg scored 10 and Braga 11.
In the Bundesliga, the hosts are ranked ninth in the Over 2.5 goals market - 20 of their 32 domestic games crossed the mark. Meanwhile, Braga rank fourth in Portugal, with 21 of their 32 league outings going over.
Three of Braga’s five Europa League knockout games this term have also featured over 2.5 total goals. Freiburg have one better in as many UEL two-legged ties.
Both sides possess potent attacking lineups that can cause heavy damage at the slightest notice. This sets the stage for a competitive match that is likely to feature goals at both ends, pushing the total over 2.5 goals.
- Freiburg vs Braga Betting Tip 3: Over 2.5 total goals, at odds of 2.00 on bet365