Our betting expert expects the game to open up in the second half, with Lamine Yamal scoring in an away win.
Best bets for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
- Barcelona to win at odds of 2.25 on bet365
- Lamine Yamal to score anytime at odds of 2.62 on bet365
- Second half - Both teams to score at odds of 2.87 on bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Extra motivation to see Barca over the line
These clubs meet again twice over the next fortnight in the Champions League. That will unquestionably affect how Atletico Madrid approach this match. Simeone is expected to start without a number of his regulars, with the European tie the clear priority.
The Atleti boss is already missing Marcos Llorente and Johnny Cardoso due to suspensions. He also has fitness concerns regarding Jan Oblak, Marc Pubill, Pablo Barrios, and Alexander Sorloth. There’s little prospect of anyone who isn’t 100% fit being risked.
Barcelona will feature a strong lineup. They have won seven of their last eight games across all competitions. They will have benefited from the break, with fatigue certainly creeping in last time out in La Liga.
The visitors can also take confidence from having won on four of their last five visits to the Estadio Metropolitano. They appear to offer value with an implied win probability of 46.5%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Bet 1: Barcelona to win at odds of 2.25 on bet365
Yamal to continue impressive scoring streak
Barcelona have lost Raphinha to an injury that could have serious consequences over the next month. The Brazilian’s absence will likely see even more of their play be focused on the right flank with Lamine Yamal. The teenager could also take on penalty duties.
That should serve to only increase the 18-year-old’s goal threat. Yamal is already having a great season in that regard. He has scored 14 times in La Liga, the best return of his young career to date.
The winger has netted 21 times in all competitions for Barca this term. He scored six goals in seven club appearances before the international break. That included a brilliant hat-trick against Villarreal.
Atletico Madrid are widely seen as having a weakness at left-back. That’s something that Yamal can certainly exploit in this game. He looks good as an anytime goalscorer bet.
- Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Bet 2: Lamine Yamal to score anytime at odds of 2.62 on bet365
Goals at each end after the break
While it’s not a priority, Simeone should still have a strong bench to call upon in this match. In positions where there are no fitness issues, he may hold his internationals back and introduce them in the second half. Atleti will still want to make Barca’s stars work as hard as possible, and they should ask some questions.
Los Rojiblancos have scored freely after the interval at home this season in La Liga. 62% of their goals at the Estadio Metropolitano have come in the second half. They average 1.4 goals per game after the break in front of their own fans in the league.
Meanwhile, 54% of Barcelona’s league goals this term have come in the second half. They also scored four times after the 70th minute in a 4-2 victory on their last league visit to this ground.
Backing both teams to score in the second half could be the way to go here. That bet is given an implied probability of 41.7%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Bet 3: Second half - Both teams to score at odds of 2.87 on bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona
- Goalscorers prediction - Atletico Madrid: Antoine Griezmann - Barcelona: Lamine Yamal, Fermin Lopez
Atletico Madrid are on course for a top-four finish in La Liga, but they are not in title contention. A 3-2 defeat in the derby at the Santiago Bernabeu before the international break changed little in terms of their season.
Cup competitions are now Diego Simeone's priority. Los Rojiblancos beat Tottenham 7-5 on aggregate to reach the Champions League quarter-finals. They also have a Copa del Rey final to look forward to this month after a semi-final win over Barcelona.
By contrast, this is a big game for Barca, who are battling Real Madrid for the title. Hansi Flick’s side have won their last five league matches. They were unconvincing 1-0 winners against Rayo Vallecano in their last match, following a 7-2 Champions League victory over Newcastle.
Probable lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Musso, Ruggeri, Hancko, Le Normand, Molina, Koke, Vargas, Baena, Griezmann, Gonzalez, Alvarez
Barcelona expected lineup: J. Garcia, Cancelo, Martin, Cubarsi, E. Garcia, Bernal, Pedri, Rashford, Fermin, Yamal, Ferran