Our betting expert expects West Ham to be competitive against a team that lack confidence. Consequently, a draw is a likely outcome.
Best bets for Aston Villa vs West Ham
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.61 on bet365
- Highest scoring half - Second half at odds of 2.10 on bet365
- 1x2 - Draw at odds of 3.60 on bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Historical trends suggest a high-scoring encounter
Villa’s offence this season has been lacklustre, as they’ve managed just 40 goals from 30 games. At home, they’ve netted 21 goals in 15 games, an average of 1.40 goals per match. Defensively, the hosts have been vulnerable, failing to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 league fixtures at Villa Park.
The home side may benefit from the fact that West Ham’s defence has also struggled this term. Only Burnley (58) have conceded more league goals than the Hammers’ 55 this season. The visitors have conceded an average of 1.80 goals per away game in the league.
Unai Emery’s side have seen both teams score in 53% of their Premier League matches this term. Meanwhile, this figure increases to 60% for the visitors, while 53% of their away games produced goals at both ends. Historical data shows that the last seven head-to-head meetings resulted in both teams scoring, suggesting a repeat is likely.
- Aston Villa vs West Ham Betting Tip 1: BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.61 on bet365
Fireworks expected after the break
The hosts have often started slowly in the league but generally perform more effectively after the break. They have a 60% scoring rate in the second half, compared to 43% in the first period. Villa have netted 25 of their 40 goals this term after the restart, accounting for 62% of their total.
However, they also concede the most in the second period, as 57% of those goals came after the break. West Ham’s concession rate in the second half is 60% away from home and 70% at any venue. The Hammers also tend to score more frequently in the second half than in the first.
Nuno’s men have scored 61% of their goals in the latter stages of matches, while they have also conceded 56% of their total goals after the break. As a result, this fixture could be more entertaining in the second period.
- Aston Villa vs West Ham Betting Tip 2: Highest scoring half - Second half at odds of 2.10 on bet365
Avoiding defeat is crucial for both sides
Typically, the hosts would be expected to win this fixture. However, they have experienced a decline in Premier League form recently. Villa have lost three consecutive league matches as part of a four-game winless run. The Villans have won only one of their last seven league games.
Meanwhile, the visitors are determined to avoid relegation, and that shouldn’t be overlooked. West Ham showed last week that they remain competitive, and they are now unbeaten in their previous three matches across all competitions.
The previous five head-to-head meetings at Villa Park resulted in two wins for each side. Their most recent meeting at this venue ended in a 1-1 stalemate. With both sides eager to secure three points, they could just settle for a draw.
- Aston Villa vs West Ham Betting Tip 3: 1x2 - Draw at odds of3.60 on bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 West Ham
- Goalscorers prediction: Aston Villa: Morgan Rogers; West Ham: Taty Castellanos
Aston Villa have experienced an inconsistent season. Following a poor start in the league, they secured several positive results to move into the top three of the Premier League. There were stages during the campaign when the hosts were firmly in the title race.
However, their players have suffered injuries. They are now finding it difficult to maintain a challenge for a top-four finish. Defeat to Manchester United last week marked their third consecutive league loss. Crucially, they surrendered third place to the Red Devils and now trail fifth-placed Liverpool by only two points.
The Villains risk losing their position in the European qualification places, given their recent form. With Liverpool and Chelsea eager to clinch the Champions League spots, the margin for error is narrow.
West Ham have a different objective this season. They intend to maintain their status as a Premier League club. The Hammers enter this fixture still in the relegation zone, though only on an inferior goal difference. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have every chance to avoid the drop.
However, the visitors cannot rely on other results, as their progression remains within their control. Against Manchester City last weekend, the side demonstrated that they will remain competitive in their attempt to stay up. Additional positive results could help the East London club avoid relegation, starting with this fixture on Sunday.
Probable lineups for Aston Villa vs West Ham
Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez, Bogarde, Konsa, Mings, Digne, Onana, Luiz, Rogers, McGinn, Buendia, Watkins
West Ham expected lineup: Hermansen, Todibo, Mavropanos, Disasi, Wan-Bissaka, Soucek, Fernandes, Diouf, Bowen, Pablo, Castellanos