The market believes Zinedine Zidane’s arrival could give Les Bleus the edge. Spain, England & reigning Nations League champions Portugal have a shot.
| Nations League winner market | Odds |
| France | 3.75 |
| Spain | 4.00 |
| England | 5.50 |
| Portugal | 9.00 |
Odds courtesy of BET99. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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France – the market’s pick to challenge La Roja
The French currently sit third in the world rankings, but they are considered the most likely Nations League winners over the reigning world champions Spain. Their new era under Zinedine Zidane is eagerly anticipated after being handed the reins from former teammate Didier Deschamps.
Zidane has immense experience, despite not coaching a team for the last 5 seasons. For starters, he landed a hat-trick of successive Champions League titles with Real Madrid.
It also helps that Zidane has arguably the most talented crop of European players at his disposal. For large parts of the 2026 World Cup, France were an irresistible proposition in the final third. Yet, they came unstuck when it mattered against Spain in the semi-final.
The way they lost in the third-place play-off against England is also cause for concern. Their Nations League group is far from easy. They face Italy, Türkiye and Belgium twice before they can even think about the knockout phase.
With an adaptation to Zidane’s style of play expected, it’s hard to view Les Bleus as a value bet at a 26.67% implied probability.
Spain - continuity could be key for the world champions
A comparison of Nations League groups between France and Spain suggests the latter may have the better route to the knockout phase. La Roja face England, Croatia and Czechia.
England are their main threat, but Croatia are very much in a state of transition as their golden generation of players draws to a close. Meanwhile, Czechia have slid to 48th in the world rankings, well below their average rank of 22nd.
Luis de la Fuente’s side have avoided defeat inside 90 minutes in their last 38 matches, including friendlies. During this period, they overcame all their main Nations League rivals at least once.
Spain reached the final of the last edition of the Nations League, only to fall at the last hurdle to bitter rivals Portugal. De la Fuente has been remarkably consistent with his team selection. The first 4 games of the 2026/27 Nations League will be played across September and October, so familiarity will be a strength over this hectic schedule.
From a player availability perspective, La Roja are in good shape too. They are only without Joan Garcia (knee) during this four-game international break.
England - Tuchel’s Three Lions could yet come good
The Three Lions are currently third favourites in the Nations League winner odds market. Thomas Tuchel’s men were very close to reaching the 2026 World Cup final. Their campaign ended with a semi-final defeat to Argentina.
Nevertheless, they have lost just one of their last 10 competitive matches inside 90 minutes. However, if we exclude their third-place play-off win over France at the World Cup, they haven’t defeated top European opposition since October 2023.
After that 3-1 win over Italy, they then drew with the Belgians and lost out to the Spaniards in the Euro 2024 final.
It’s important to think further ahead if you’re pondering a bet on England to win the 2026/27 Nations League. The fact that they are in the same group as Spain suggests a second-place finish is the most likely outcome.
That would mean they face the 2nd leg of their quarter-final knockout game away from Wembley. In addition, that last-8 tie would be against one of the other group winners.
There are additional question marks surrounding the scheduling of the Nations League and England’s compatibility with the competition.
The 2027 knockout stage will be played in March in the midst of the Premier League campaign. Since most England players will be heavily involved in Premier League and continental action at top clubs, they are unlikely to be in top condition.
The demands of the Premier League can be considerable, both physically and mentally. It appeared to take its toll on the Three Lions in the latter stages of the 2026 World Cup. The same could happen if England progress from their Nations League group.
Portugal - respect for the reigning Nations League champions
Portugal surprised European football by winning the previous Nations League, overcoming arch-rivals Spain in the final. Portugal now have 2 Nations League titles to their name, so they are 4th favourites based on experience alone.
It’s unlikely the Lusitans can add a third success in such quick time. The national team are in the process of a major rebuild following their World Cup disappointment. New manager Jorge Jesus is a sensible, experienced appointment to oversee the post-Ronaldo era, although he remains in Jesus’ short-term plans.
They are well set to top their group, having been drawn with Norway, Denmark and Wales. However, their recent results, including those in World Cup qualifiers, were patchy at best. The Lusitans have won just 3 of their last 8 official matches. They had to work surprisingly hard to overcome Hungary and Ireland last term.
The market currently gives them an 11% implied probability of winning the Nations League again. Ironically, that’s the same percentage they were given to win the 2026 World Cup, and look how that unfolded. At this stage, Portugal are difficult to back with confidence.