.png?auto=webp&format=pjpg&width=3840&quality=60)
After dispatching Bosnia in the Round of 32, the USMNT is rolling into the next playoff round, facing Belgium. Kalshi traders are getting hot on this market, as the hosts, buoyed by mass home support across the nation, have a shot to go deep in this summer's tournament.
USA Stage of Elimination with Kalshi
USA Stage of Elimination | Current chance |
World Cup Winner | 3% |
To Make the Final | 6% |
To Make the Semifinals | 10% |
To Make the Quarterfinals | 23% |
All chances are courtesy of Kalshi, current market prices can change as trading activity increases throughout the tournament.
- Claim the Kalshi promo code to get trading bonuses
- Get your hands on the best World Cup Betting promos or our experts guide on how to bet on the World Cup
- Check out our expert’s guide to the best World Cup betting sites & apps this summer
Prediction markets now give supporters another way to follow that journey by trading on how far the United States can advance.
After progressing through the FIFA World Cup group stage before beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the Round of 32, Mauricio Pochettino's side now finds itself just one victory away from matching the nation's best World Cup run in more than two decades.
USMNT Round of 16 vs Belgium
The United States has earned this opportunity the hard way. We saw an impressive as the Americans overcame Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 despite playing the final half hour with 10 men following Folarin Balogun's red card.
That victory perhaps revealed more about this team than any free-flowing attacking display could. Chris Richards, Tim Ream and the rest of the defense absorbed sustained pressure before Malik Tillman's superb free kick sealed the result.
Playing on home soil has clearly given this group confidence, and Mauricio Pochettino has repeatedly praised the maturity his players have shown under pressure.
Belgium presents the toughest challenge so far. Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans, Leandro Trossard and Romelu Lukaku provide proven quality, although Belgium needed extra time and a dramatic late comeback to eliminate Senegal.
That performance suggested vulnerabilities the USMNT may be able to exploit with another disciplined display.
USMNT Quarterfinal Chances - Portugal or Spain
If the United States reaches the last eight, expectations would naturally rise again.
By that stage the Americans would already have exceeded the pre-tournament benchmark many set for this squad. Home support has grown with every match, and Seattle has traditionally been one of the team's strongest venues.
Any potential quarterfinal opponent would likely be among the tournament favorites, but the USMNT has shown it can adapt its style.
Against Paraguay it played expansive soccer, while against Bosnia it embraced a far more physical contest and still found a way through. That flexibility could make another deep run more realistic than many predicted before the tournament began.
USMNT Semifinal Chances
Only one American men's team has reached the semifinals of a FIFA World Cup, doing so in the inaugural tournament in 1930.
Reaching that stage would require successive victories over elite opposition, but prediction markets still leave room for that possibility. While it remains an outside outcome, confidence around the squad has continued to grow after each knockout performance.
With Christian Pulisic leading from the front, Tyler Adams controlling midfield and the team continuing to feed off energetic home crowds, belief inside the camp remains high despite Balogun's suspension.
USMNT Final Chances
A place in the World Cup Final would represent one of the greatest achievements in American soccer and even CONCACAF history.
Several powerhouse nations remain in contention, meaning the path only becomes more difficult from here. Yet knockout football often rewards resilient teams capable of winning in different ways, and that is precisely what Pochettino believes his squad has demonstrated throughout this tournament.
Prediction markets currently view such a run as unlikely, but with home support behind them and momentum continuing to build, the USMNT still has an opportunity to keep rewriting history one match at a time.