Burnley have kept clean sheets in their last three meetings with Leeds. Can Scott Parker’s men continue this streak on Friday night?
Best bets for Leeds United vs Burnley
- Leeds United -1 (Handicap 3-Way) @ +105 with bet365
- Under 2.5 goals @ +120 with bet365
- Both teams to score (No) @ -111 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Hosts expected to secure comfortable victory
Leeds have averaged almost half as many points per game at Elland Road (1.53) than they have in away matches (0.83). Burnley have recorded an average of just 0.53 points per away game, losing 12 of their league games away from Turf Moor.
The Clarets are averaging 2.13 goals conceded in their last eight away games. Their goal output has also declined, averaging just 0.75 goals scored in their last eight away games. That is 25% lower than their season average of 1.00 goal per away game.
The manner in which Parker’s men were defeated at Nottingham Forest and Fulham makes this a dangerous game for the Clarets. If Leeds score an early goal, a highly supportive Elland Road would demand more goals. Backing Leeds to win by a two-goal margin or better at an odds-against price is a strong option this week.
- Leeds United vs Burnley Bet 1: Leeds United -1 (Handicap 3-way) @ +105 with bet365
Head-to-head data suggests two or fewer goals are probable
Although Leeds’ league form has greatly improved in the last six weeks, their goal output has decreased by 22.5% in their last eight games. They currently average just 1.00 goal scored per game. Crucially, their average goals conceded tally has decreased 50% over the same period, from 1.50 to 0.75 goals conceded per game.
Combined with the fact that four of their last five head-to-head meetings saw two or fewer goals scored, makes under 2.5 goals a value bet.
Burnley have little to play for but pride at this stage of the season. After a couple of embarrassing defensive displays at Craven Cottage and The City Ground, Parker may adopt a defensive approach and seek to frustrate Leeds.
- Leeds United vs Burnley Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals @ +120 with bet365
Value in backing a home clean sheet
Since Arsenal dominated United 4-0 at home at the end of January, Leeds have conceded just four goals in six games across all competitions. There is little incentive for Burnley to trouble the Leeds backline this weekend either.
With the Clarets’ relegation already confirmed and Parker’s future as manager uncertain, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding Burnley at present.
The betting markets indicated there is only a 52.63% chance of either side keeping a clean sheet on Friday night. However, we need to factor in Leeds’ recent clean sheets at home to a powerful Brentford side and bottom club Wolves. Their greatly improved defensive structure makes this the top value bet from our trio of Leeds United vs Burnley predictions.
- Leeds United vs Burnley Bet 3: Both teams to score (No) @ -111 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Leeds United 2-0 Burnley
- Goalscorers prediction - Leeds United: Calvert-Lewin, Okafor - Burnley: N/A
This fixture involves two of last season’s teams promoted to the Premier League from the Championship. However, only one appears likely to avoid an instant return to the second tier.
Leeds United’s recent improved form has been much-needed to lift the Whites six points clear of the relegation zone with only four games remaining. A run of nine points from their last five games has moved United into 15th place. They are just two points behind Newcastle United side that played in the Champions League this season.
It’s clear that boss Daniel Farke made a conscious decision to make his team more difficult to beat after their loss to Sunderland in March. Since then, Leeds have conceded only three goals in their last five Premier League games.
Burnley have failed to establish themselves as a Premier League club once again. The Clarets have just 20 points from their 34 games played so far, winning only four matches. There have been issues at both ends of the pitch. They’ve scored the second-lowest number of goals in the league. In addition, their goals conceded tally (68) is worse than that of bottom club Wolves (62).
Nevertheless, their recent record against Leeds has been decent. They are chasing a fourth clean sheet in succession. Burnley won the reverse fixture at Turf Moor in October and secured four points against their promotion rivals in the Championship last season. However, with little to play for on Friday, it’s unlikely that they will put up much resistance at Elland Road.
Probable lineups for Leeds United vs Burnley
Leeds United expected lineup: Perri, Struijk, Bijol, Justin, Gudmundsson, Bogle, Ampadu, Tanaka, Okafor, Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin
Burnley expected lineup: Dubravka, Walker, Hartman, Esteve, Humphreys, Ekdal, Tchaouna, Ward-Prowse, Laurent, Anthony, Flemming