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In a Sweet 16 Matchup that could have more of a Final Four feel, #3 Illinois takes on #2 Houston (-2.5) at 10:05pm ET tonight. Houston has been dominant thus far, with a +62 point differential, and spread bets on the Cougars, playing at nearby Toyota Center, are popular.
Illinois vs Houston Predictions - 10:05pm ET - 3/26
- Emanuel Sharp 20+ Points @ +300
- David Mirkovic 10+ Rebounds @ +160
- Houston -2.5 @ -118
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbook, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
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Illinois vs Houston Odds
- Spread: Houston -2.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: Illinois (+135), Houston (-160)
- Total: 139.5 (O -115, U -105)
Illinois vs Houston Picks
Sharp Shooter - Emanuel Sharp 20+ Points (+300)
One of three remaining Houston players who played a key role in reaching last season’s National Championship Game, Emanuel Sharp is also the Cougars’ most prolific three-point shooter. Sharp averages 2.6 made threes per game.
Sharp went 5-11 from beyond the arc during the first weekend of the tournament and averaged 17 points per game. Notably, both games were blowouts, and Sharp, who plays over 29 minutes per game, didn’t play more than 25 in either contest.
The Cougars will need his shooting and defense today in what’s expected to be a close game, so expect Sharp to play big minutes unless he gets into foul trouble. Sharp has a decent shot to score 20 or more points for a tenth time this season, and I’d take a punt on his +300 odds.
- Illinois vs Houston Prediction 1: Emanuel Sharp 20+ Points @ +300
Mirkovic to Mop Up the Glass - David Mirkovic 10+ Rebounds (+160)
Houston is playing at a significant size disadvantage today, with just two rotation players who are 6’7” or above. Meanwhile, only one of Illinois’ rotation guys is below 6’6”. The Illini have the third-highest offensive rebounding rate in the country, at 38.9%, and could dominate the boards.
David Mirkovic, Illinois’ 6’9” Montenegrin forward, leads the team with 2.5 offensive rebounds and 7.9 total rebounds per game. Mirkovic grabbed 17 rebounds in just 28 minutes in the 105-70 First Round victory over Penn and is absolutely a double-double threat tonight.
Mirkovic has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in three of his last six games, making his +160 odds an attractive play. If the Illini can get the Houston bigs in foul trouble, which is certainly possible, Mirkovic could easily reach 10 rebounds.
- Illinois vs Houston Prediction 2: David Mirkovic 10+ Rebounds @ +160
Illinois Won’t Match Houston’s Intensity - Houston -2.5 (-118)
Houston has played at an exemplary level of intensity through two games of the Big Dance. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars have allowed just 52 points per game, and they rank fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency.
Illinois hasn’t played many teams on the defensive level of Houston this season, and when it has, it has struggled. Against teams with the 25 most efficient defenses, Illinois is only 2-4 this season. Illinois has also lost five of its previous six games against Quad 1 opponents.
The Illini do have the second-most efficient offense in the nation, but Houston should be ready. Houston is 6-4 this season against teams that rank in the top 25 in offensive efficiency. The Cougars have also stepped up lately, with four wins over their last Quad 1 opponents.
The Illini force the fewest turnovers in the nation as well, meaning they’ll need to make every possession count. I don’t expect Illinois to play mistake-free basketball or match Houston’s intensity. Take Houston -2.5.
- Illinois vs Houston Prediction 3: Houston -2.5 @ -118
Illinois vs Houston Start Time
- Start Time: 10:05pm ET
- Location: Toyota Center
- Address: 1510 Polk St, Houston, TX 77002
- TV & Streaming: TNT, truTV, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, Sling TV
To secure back-to-back Elite Eight appearances, Houston first needs to take down an explosive Illinois team, which dominated during the opening weekend of the tournament. Both teams have an argument for being underseeded, which could make for the best game of the Sweet 16.