Are the Florence club capable of bucking this trend? A look at the xG data suggests brighter prospects for I Viola.
| 25/26 Serie A Relegation Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Hellas Verona | -227 |
| Pisa | -149 |
| Lecce | +100 |
| Parma | + 225 |
| Fiorentina | +210 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Can Fiorentina upset the history books?
Last season, Fiorentina finished sixth in the Italian Serie A. They secured a spot in the Europa Conference League, where they find themselves well within the top 16 of the league phase.
Domestically, however, 2025/26 has been a struggle. Paolo Vanoli’s men are currently rooted to the foot of the division. They are without a single victory in their first 14 Serie A games this season – losing eight and drawing six. Also, they happen to have the worst goal difference in the division (-13).
Worryingly for Fiorentina fans, no side has ever started the season with a 14-game winless run and avoided relegation to Serie B. They haven’t even enjoyed a ‘new manager bounce’ since appointing Vanoli, which most teams rely upon to kick-start their ailing seasons.
Historical trends don’t offer much comfort. Fiorentina’s start to this season is worse than their ill-fated 2001/02 campaign, which culminated in relegation. I Viola had ten points on the board at this stage of the 01/02 season.
In 1992/93, Fiorentina sat in sixth position with 15 points from 14 matches. They still managed to succumb to relegation. That’s despite having big-name icons like Brian Laudrup, Gabriel Batistuta and Stefan Effenberg in their ranks.
However, when you delve deeper into the underlying data, I Viola ought to be far higher in the table. Using the latest xG data for the Serie A season, Fiorentina should currently be in 12th place. Their expected points suggest they are supposed to have at least 17 points. That’s 11 more than their current total.
It’s their second-half performances that have let them down so far this season. Fiorentina have dropped more points from winning positions (16) than any other team in 2025/26.
They have led against the likes of AS Roma, AC Milan, Como and Sassuolo, only to go on to lose in all four contests. They’ve also dropped two points from winning positions against Genoa and Cagliari. The latter came in the 90th minute.
Recent games with Atalanta and Sassuolo have underlined their issues. I Viola have failed to register a single shot on target in the second 45 of both matches.
Why their survival hopes could be boosted over the next four games
Fortunately for Fiorentina and Vanoli, they still have plenty of time to turn things around. They are only seven points adrift of safety, which could be erased with just three positive results.
Their next four games appear very winnable on paper. They start with back-to-back home games against Verona and Udinese.
Verona are three points and one place above them in the Serie A table. The Yellow and Blues average just 0.79 goals scored per game. I Viola should find it easier than usual to stifle their front line.
Udinese, who are 11th in the table, are their next opponents. They have a -7 goal difference, having scored just 15 goals in 14 matches. They are underperforming their xG by -0.30 goals, highlighting inefficiency in front of goal.
Over the festive season, I Viola travel to 15th-placed Parma, who average just one point per game. Parma also have a negative xG vs actual metric (-0.44), which suggests their attack is out of form.
Their four-game run over the festive period ends with a home game against Cremonese, who are surprisingly bottom of the xG table. That’s despite currently sitting ninth in Serie A.
For Vanoli’s men to turn their season around and close in on 17th place, these next four games are crucial. It looks like a ‘now or never’ moment.