Bottom of the barrel: Value odds in relegation markets

Seven rounds remain in Spain. Six in England and Italy. Five in Germany. The relegation battle is reaching its frantic finale across Europe.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Four markets, one relegation undercurrent

The Premier League relegation battle has become highly unpredictable. Tottenham Hotspur face the very real prospect of being knocked out of the English top-flight for the first time since 1977. However, the race to finish bottom is comfortably between Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Burnley have won only one of their last 23 Premier League games – defeating Crystal Palace 3-2 at Selhurst Park in mid-February. They are 12 points from safety with six rounds remaining. Scott Parker’s side cannot be relegated this weekend. However, the point gap could extend to 15 when they visit a Nottingham Forest side that are on a six-match unbeaten run.

Burnley possess a very poor goal difference of -30. The current last-placed team, Wolverhampton Wanderers, sit three points behind them. They have a slightly worse goal difference of -34, but have a significantly easier remaining schedule.

Wolves could officially be relegated from the top-flight this weekend. For that to happen, Leeds United need to beat them. At the same time, Spurs need to overcome Brighton in their afternoon match.

However, if Spurs don’t win, Wolves could still return to the Championship on Monday. West Ham United, who are 17th, must either draw or beat Crystal Palace. That result, along with Wolves losing, means that relegation would be confirmed.

In the Bundesliga, no team can be relegated yet. Heidenheim sit in last place with 19 points from 29 matches, placing them two points behind Wolfsburg and six points behind St. Pauli. To avoid automatic relegation, the team from Baden-Wurttemberg must win at least four of their final five fixtures.

Wolfsburg will face Freiburg, Bayern Munich, and St. Pauli in their final three games, in that order. The final game against the Kiezkicker will be crucial in deciding the final league positions.

Serie A’s relegation battle is equally competitive. Hellas Verona and Pisa, the two teams who are almost certain to be eliminated, cannot be relegated this weekend, though. With six games remaining, they both need at least 14 points each in the best-case scenario.

Lecce and Cremonese are level on 27 points, hovering just above the bottom two sides. In this case, Lecce’s visit to Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi in round 33 will be decisive, albeit the existing nine-point gap between the two teams.

La Liga is the most competitive of all. Positions 10 through 18 are separated by only six points, and just 11 points separate all the teams in the bottom half of the table. Elche, Levante, and Real Oviedo occupy the bottom three, but are separated by only five points.

Alaves and Elche are the main candidates for the third relegation spot, while Levante and Oviedo are in unfavourable positions. The direct clash between Alaves and Elche at Estadio Martinez Valero will likely decide who survives.

Value betting on relegation contenders

Burnley’s final stretch is extremely difficult. They face Nottingham Forest first, before meeting Manchester City, Leeds United, Aston Villa, Arsenal, and finally Wolves. Three of those opponents – City, Villa, and Arsenal – occupy the top four spots.

Wolves, by contrast, face Leeds, Tottenham, Sunderland, Brighton, Fulham, and Burnley – all bottom-half sides. The final clash at Turf Moor could be decisive, but Burnley’s goal difference is marginally better than Wolves’. However, their extremely difficult schedule is the most important factor. That’s why backing Burnley to finish last offers value.

Heidenheim are in need of a miracle. Four wins from their final five games is the minimum requirement, starting with Freiburg at Europa-Park Stadion. Wolfsburg are likely to drop points against Bayern Munich, while St. Pauli also face a difficult sequence of matches.

Freiburg have little to play for, as they are comfortably mid-table. Heidenheim’s desperation and their three-match unbeaten streak make them a live underdog. A double chance is a smart hedge regarding their attempt to avoid relegation.

Cremonese are level on 27 points with Lecce, both above Hellas Verona and Pisa, who have 18 points each. However, the Violini’s remaining fixtures are highly demanding. They face Torino, Napoli, Lazio, Pisa, Udinese, and Como. Four of those six opponents are positioned inside the top 10.

Lecce, meanwhile, face Fiorentina, Verona, Pisa, Juventus, Sassuolo, and Genoa. Only Juventus are currently positioned in the top half of the table. Cremonese last played in Serie B in 2024/25, while Lecce have more recent top‑flight survival experience. The Cremona outfit are strong favourites to be relegated.

Elche and Alaves, who are separated by one point, are two teams competing to avoid the third relegation spot behind Levante and Real Oviedo. Alaves have a more demanding schedule, as they face Real Madrid and Barcelona. However, they are also in better form.

Elche face Atletico Madrid as their toughest opponent and also meet Oviedo. The head‑to‑head at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere in round 32 will be decisive, followed by a trip to Alaves. Despite home advantage, the visitors should come out on top given their superior form. Backing Elche to be relegated offers excellent value.

We have analysed four leagues and provided four bets. It is important to follow the fixture difficulty and the desperation factor. These are market gaps with excellent potential returns.