Pep Guardiola’s team saw off the Gunners with a 2-1 victory on Sunday. They’ll be going for goals against struggling Burnley in midweek.
| Man City Bet Builders | Odds |
|---|---|
| Man City to win both halves, Man City to score over 2.5 goals & Erling Haaland to score anytime vs Burnley | +165 |
| First half: Man City, Man City to win & Man City to score in both halves vs Everton | +220 |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Tight race suggests goal difference could be key
Arsenal have been in control of the Premier League title race for most of the season. However, their defeat at the Etihad Stadium has set up a tense finale.
Man City travel to Burnley on Wednesday evening. They’re firmly expected to triumph at Turf Moor. That would leave the top two deadlocked on 70 points with five games to play.
Both sides still have three home fixtures and two road trips left. While there are few easy games in the Premier League, the schedules are favourable in each case. That increases the likelihood that goal difference could determine the outcome of the title race.
The last time the English top flight was settled in such fashion was in the 2011/12 campaign. Sergio Aguero’s stoppage-time goal on the final day ensured Man City and Man Utd finished level on points. The Citizens claimed their first Premier League crown by virtue of a superior goal difference.
Fourteen years on, it’s shaping up to be just as tight. Arsenal’s goal difference is currently +37, compared to Man City’s +36. However, Guardiola’s side do have one game in hand.
City only need to beat Burnley this week to take the top spot, given they have scored more goals than the Gunners. They’ll be targeting a convincing victory. That could prove decisive in the final reckoning.
If it does come down to a straight shootout on the goal difference front, Man City are better equipped to triumph. They’ve scored two or more goals in 20 of their 32 Premier League fixtures so far this term. No other club can match that record.
Is it time to back Man City’s attack to fire?
The Burnley clash offers the perfect opportunity for Man City to significantly boost their goal difference. The Clarets are only playing for pride now. They’ve lost their last three league games, conceding nine times in the process.
City dispatched Burnley 5-1 at the Etihad earlier this term. All of the last 14 meetings have been won by the Mancunians. They netted 51 times over that period, conceding just three goals.
Erling Haaland has returned to form, with four goals in three appearances since the international break. That suggests it could be a very long night for Scott Parker’s team. Backing City to win both halves, City to score over 2.5 goals and Haaland to score anytime appears to offer value.
Guardiola’s side then face a 12-day wait for their next Premier League fixture. That could be a tougher match against Everton at the Hill Dickinson Stadium in early May. However, there’s still plenty of reason to expect Man City to triumph.
The Toffees only average 1.29 points per game at their new ground. They have the seventh-worst home record in the division, but the joint-best away points tally outside the top two.
Man City are dominant before the break, with a first-half goal difference of +27. They’ve conceded just nine times prior to the interval. Backing City to win the first half, win the match and score in both halves could be the smart play against Everton.
They close out the campaign with games against Brentford, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa. Their final two opponents are both favourites to reach European finals. That could also lead to favourable end-of-season conditions for building Man City bets against teams with other priorities.