Miami is hitting the reset button under Jeff Hafley after five seasons of Tua Tagovailoa. Malik Willis gets the nod against a Washington defense that was among the NFC's worst last year. Purchase $25 in Novig Coins with NoVig bonus code GOAL100 and get a 100% match.
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The Dolphins are laying 1.5 points with Washington catching +1.5. The total is listed at 38.5. Miami is favored on the moneyline while the Commanders are the underdog.
Hafley confirmed Willis will see action Friday, though he didn't commit to a snap count. The two teams held joint practices earlier this week, so neither side will be surprised by the other's looks.
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Trading with Your NoVig Promo Code on Today's NFL Preseason
August football always produces strange betting spots, and this matchup fits the mold perfectly. Miami is essentially starting over with a new coaching staff and a new quarterback. Washington has questions on both lines and a defense that gave up 20-plus points in eight straight losses during one stretch last year. Our NFL analyst has been studying both rosters and has Friday's plays ready.
Dolphins vs Commanders, Preseason Week 1 - 8/14 - 7pm ET, Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Total over 38.5 is the pick. All four of Miami's preseason games last year sailed past this number. Hafley runs an aggressive offensive system, and Washington's defense was among the NFC's worst a season ago.
Dolphins -1.5 is the side play. Willis has six career starts and already knows Hafley's playbook from their Green Bay days. The Commanders are still piecing things together under Dan Quinn, and their quarterback situation remains unsettled behind Jayden Daniels.
Commanders team total over 17.5 is another angle. Even with backups, Washington has enough skill position talent to cobble together a couple of scoring drives. Miami's defense is breaking in new personnel, which creates opportunities.
Malik Willis to throw a touchdown is a prop to watch if the odds are right. Willis has the arm to stretch the field, and Hafley's scheme is built for explosive plays. Check the board before placing.
First half over is worth considering. Both teams will want to establish tempo early. The joint practices mean there are no schematic surprises, so offenses should move the ball in the opening half.
Over 38.5 and Dolphins -1.5 are my two best bets. Miami has the coaching continuity and quarterback advantage once the starters exit.
All odds are courtesy of NoVig. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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