Valencia have been relegated only once, in 1985/86. However, nine points from 12 games has left the club one place above rock bottom this season.
| 2026/27 Valencia betting markets | Odds |
| To be relegated (La Liga) | 5.00 |
All odds are courtesy of BET99, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Why has it gone so wrong for Valencia?
Valencia’s 2026/27 La Liga campaign unravelled long before the first whistle. A poor summer 2026 recruitment drive left the squad well short of pressing intensity and speed on the counter-attack.
The club did their best to bring in seasoned campaigners, such as Guido Rodriguez, Pablo Maffeo, Arnaut Danjuma and Filip Ugrinic. Still, the squad remain heavily unbalanced.
The questionable recruitment policy unsurprisingly led to a poor start to the season. The club were forced to act in mid-September, firing head coach Carlos Corberan. He wasn’t the only casualty. CEO Ron Gourlay was also relieved of his duties, with former sporting director Braulio Vazquez returning to the club.
Javier Aguirre was appointed as Corberan’s successor, but the former Mexico national team boss has failed to spark a turnaround thus far.
There have nevertheless been a few encouraging signs. Aguirre has scrapped Corberan’s passive, sterile low block in favour of a more compact, yet combative system. Valencia have kept two clean sheets in their last five games under him.
One of those came in a goalless draw against Athletic Bilbao, allowing Los Che to claim a rare point at Mestalla.
That’s a modest improvement at the back, but it has done little to change the short-term picture in the La Liga table.
In truth, the bigger problem lies at the other end of the pitch. Los Che have managed to score just eight times in 12 matches. That makes their forward line the weakest in the entire division.
A side that can defend a little better but still fail to score is one that will continue to drop points - and that’s exactly what’s happening.
What do the numbers say about Valencia’s slump?
Valencia entered the November international break in 19th place, with just nine points from 12 games. Their eight goals scored is a joint league low. Their only La Liga victories have come on the road, with narrow 1-0 wins at Alaves and Elche, respectively.
Playing at Mestalla has offered little advantage. They are winless in their last seven home matches, losing five and picking up just two points from a possible 21.
That run includes a heavy 5-0 loss to defending champions Barcelona. Meanwhile, Real Madrid won 3-0 at Mestalla before the November international break.
The underlying data doesn’t flatter their start to the season either. They’ve scored eight goals from 11.73 xG, suggesting they’ve been wasteful in front of goal.
Nevertheless, that 11.73 xG total is far from impressive. It’s the third-worst xG return in the division. Worse still, they have the second-worst average for shots on target per match (2.8).
They also sit last in La Liga for total shots at goal (118) and third-worst for shot-to-goal conversion (6.78%). They even sit second-bottom for total touches in the opposition penalty area (199). All of this suggests that chance creation is just as poor as their finishing.
Striker Hugo Duro’s underlying data is the perfect case in point. Valencia’s starting number nine is yet to register a single shot on target in 10 appearances in the 2026/27 La Liga.
History offers some comfort, which may explain why their odds to be relegated are still lengthy. Valencia have suffered relegation from the Spanish top flight only once, in 1985/86. They returned to the Primera Division the very next season.
It would be a shame for such a big club to go down, especially with a planned move to the Nou Mestalla stadium in 2027/28. They have to turn things around to stay up.
Is the market underrating Valencia’s relegation risk?
Before a ball was kicked in the 2026/27 La Liga season, bookmakers gave Valencia an implied relegation probability of around 18%-20%.
They were expected to be in the lower reaches of the division, but not an obvious candidate for the drop. They had much lengthier odds than newly promoted Malaga, Racing Santander and Deportivo.
Surprisingly, little has changed in the market. Valencia’s relegation prospects have increased marginally from 18% to 20%. That’s despite them sitting one place above the bottom, with almost a third of the season elapsed.
If bettors passed on this market in the summer, now could be the best time to reassess things.
Five La Liga teams are still considered more likely to go down. Malaga (75%) are the clear favourites, followed by Racing Santander (40%), Levante and Elche (both 31%) and Getafe (27%).
Valencia have the league’s joint-worst attack and rank bottom for total shots. They also lack a home fortress to fall back on, having collected just two points from a possible 21 at Mestalla. Given those weaknesses, a 20% relegation probability looks particularly generous.
There is also a timing argument to consider. Many bookmakers appear to be pricing Valencia on their historical stature and Aguirre’s reputation as a survival specialist. They aren’t acknowledging their collapsing form and dire underlying metrics.
A tough stretch of away games lies on the horizon against Rayo Vallecano, Getafe and Atletico Madrid. Poor results here could finally push the market to slash the odds on Valencia’s possible relegation.
There are, admittedly, reasons for caution. It’s true to state that Valencia have underperformed their xG, albeit only by three goals. Aguirre’s defensive tweaks have produced two clean sheets in their last five matches too.
With one of the league’s least productive attacks and such a poor home record, Valencia’s proud long run in the Spanish top flight is in jeopardy. Backing Valencia’s relegation looks like the market worth exploring.