Our betting expert expects Vincenzo Montella’s Turkey to secure a spot in the playoff final against either Slovakia or Kosovo.
Best bets for Turkey vs Romania
- Both teams to score - Yes, at odds of 1.95 on bet365
- Over 3.5 total goals, at odds of 2.62 on bet365
- Arda Guler to score or assist, at odds of 1.61 on bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Both teams to find the net
Aside from two scoreless defeats to Spain and Mexico, Turkey have consistently found the net. Vincenzo Montella has really turned things around since his side conceded six goals to the Spanish. His team scored 14 times across their last four matches.
During that run, Turkey responded perfectly with a 6-1 victory over Bulgaria, before securing a 4-1 win against Georgia. They then defeated Bulgaria 2-0 and drew 2-2 with Spain. Clearly, the Crescent Stars have had no trouble scoring goals.
Mircea Lucescu’s men scored seven times against a struggling San Marino team, who were arguably the weakest side in the qualifiers. That result lifted morale, as did their 1-0 victory over Austria. However, Romania's 3-1 defeat to Bosnia & Herzegovina was a major setback, ultimately forcing them into a third-place finish behind the Bosnians.
Both teams have the attacking quality to break through the opposing defence in this crucial game. Therefore, it is unlikely that either goalkeeper will keep a clean sheet during the 90 minutes.
- Turkey vs Romania Prediction 1: Both teams to score - Yes, at odds of 1.95 on bet365
Goals galore in Istanbul
Over in Group E, Georgia struggled significantly, and Bulgaria also had a difficult campaign. This created a great opportunity for Turkey to secure a top-two finish. Montella’s players finished with just three points behind Spain, scoring 17 goals in six matches – which was only four fewer than the group winners managed.
Five of Turkey’s previous six matches have featured over 3.5 total goals. In that span, they scored three or more goals in three separate wins. This shows they are more than capable of scoring goals.
Romania played a total of eight matches in Group H. They finished as the second-highest scoring team in their group with 19 goals, falling just three short of leaders Austria. However, a leaky defence proved costly, as it pushed them to third place. Furthermore, three of their last four competitive fixtures have also produced at least 3.5 goals.
Facing a Turkey team that are currently on a four-game unbeaten run, Romania may find it harder to score more than once. Meanwhile, Turkey’s young and skilled attackers will be full of confidence as they aim to break Romanian hearts in Istanbul. Fans can expect an entertaining, high-scoring match at Besiktas Park.
- Turkey vs Romania Prediction 2: Over 3.5 total goals, at odds of 2.62 on bet365
Guler poised for decisive impact
Arda Guler’s form has improved rapidly in recent months, particularly after Alvaro Arbeloa took over as manager at Real Madrid. The talented midfielder has continued to improve brilliantly, largely thanks to getting more time on the pitch.
Guler has struggled to record goals and assists regularly, but still has four goals and 12 assists in 44 competitive club appearances this season. His presence in the middle third has been extremely important during Real Madrid’s current five-game unbeaten streak. Across those specific matches, he has provided one goal and one assist.
That one goal was something truly special. Three matches ago, against Elche, he came on as a substitute for Vinicius Junior. The 21-year-old player then scored with an incredible strike from 68 metres out. This stands as the longest goal ever recorded by an outfield player in Europe’s top five leagues.
He also registered one goal and three assists in Turkey’s World Cup 2026 Group E qualifying campaign. Montella would be wise to use the young star's excellent current form to help his team succeed.
- Turkey vs Romania Prediction 3: Arda Guler to score or assist, at odds of 1.61 on bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Turkey 3-1 Romania
- Goalscorers prediction: Turkey: Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, Salih Ozcan; Romania: Dennis Man
Turkey and Romania will face off for the first time in nearly 10 years in this crucial one-legged knockout tie. Their last encounter took place in November 2017, resulting in a 2-0 friendly victory for Romania.
Vincenzo Montella’s Turkey have been resurgent and remarkable. Aside from a heavy 6-0 loss to Spain last September, the Crescent Stars remain unbeaten across their last seven competitive matches. They almost avenged that defeat in their final Group E game, but Mikel Oyarzabal’s late equaliser prevented them from securing a fourth consecutive win.
Turkey eventually finished in second place, which was enough to secure their progression to the playoffs. Romania earned their spot as one of the four teams – joining Sweden, North Macedonia, and Northern Ireland – due to their strong performances in the 2024/25 Nations League.
Mircea Lucescu’s side finished third in Group H behind Austria and Bosnia & Herzegovina, despite a massive 7-1 victory over San Marino on the final day. They managed to defeat group winners Austria 1-0, but also suffered a 3-1 loss against Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Turkey and Romania share plenty of history, having played each other in several World Cup qualifiers, including matches for the 2014 tournament in Brazil. The winner of this clash will go on to face either Slovakia or Kosovo. With the passionate support of their home fans at Besiktas Park, Turkey appear likely to claim victory against the Tricolorii.
Probable lineups for Turkey vs Romania
Turkey expected lineup: Bayindir, Kadioglu, Soyuncu, Akavdin, Demiral, Celik, Kahveci, Kokcu, Ozcan, Guler, Yilmaz
Romania expected lineup: Tarnovanu, Ratiu, Ghita, Eissat, Bancu, Tanase, Sceciu, Dragomir, Baiaram, Birligea, Man