A crisis-hit Real Madrid visit the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan this weekend, and on current form, Sevilla will fancy their chances.
| Sevilla vs Real Madrid Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 |
| Sevilla to win & Both teams to score | 5.5 |
| Akor Adams to score anytime | 2.4 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Sevilla’s sudden revival sparks unlikely European challenge
With only two more matchdays left in La Liga, the standings are incredibly tight. Just six points separate Real Sociedad in eighth from Levante in 19th. Sevilla are one of a host of teams who could yet be relegated or qualify for Europe.
The Andalusians were in the bottom three heading into a crucial home game against La Real less than two weeks ago. They won that match 1-0, but the outlook seemed bleak again for a long while last Saturday.
Sevilla were trailing 1-0 heading into the final 10 minutes at the Sanchez-Pizjuan against fellow strugglers Espanyol. However, they staged a late rally, with Andres Castrin and Akor Adams scoring to secure a 2-1 victory.
That moved them onto 40 points, a figure which almost certainly won’t be enough for safety. A 3-2 comeback win at Villarreal on Wednesday then significantly eased Los Nervionenses' relegation fears.
The decision to replace Matias Almeyda with Luis Garcia Plaza in March has ultimately paid off. Despite a slow start, the new man has now won four of his seven matches, losing three. Maximum points from the final two games against Real Madrid and Celta Vigo could potentially be enough for European qualification.
With Sevilla 12th on 43 points, that’s still a relatively unlikely scenario. They cannot leapfrog sixth-placed Celta, while Real Sociedad have already clinched Europa League qualification via their Copa del Rey success. Therefore, Garcia’s team need to overturn a five-point deficit to Getafe to stand a chance of playing in the Conference League.
Can they cause problems for a divided Real Madrid?
Real Madrid, who have nothing left to play for, visit the Sanchez-Pizjuan on Sunday. With all the problems in the visitors’ camp, a resurgent Sevilla could take advantage.
Last week, news leaked of two incidents of physical confrontations involving Real Madrid players. There has also been a major backlash against top scorer Kylian Mbappe, who was mocked at the Santiago Bernabeu on Thursday night. With several selection issues and managerial uncertainty, the visitors are unlikely to be at their best.
Sevilla have certainly shown enough in recent games to suggest they will at least get on the scoresheet. They’ve netted in each of their previous four matches. It’s also five goals in 100 minutes of football for Garcia’s side since the start of their late rally against Espanyol.
Both teams have scored in 61% of Sevilla home games and 56% of Real Madrid away matches in La Liga. Backing the hosts to win a clash in which both sides net could be worth considering at long odds. They will take confidence from a 4-1 win over Barcelona in October, while Atletico Madrid were recently beaten 2-1 on this ground.
Over 2.5 goals also looks to offer value with an implied probability of 57%. Sevilla’s league matches this term average 2.89 goals per 90 minutes. Meanwhile, 56% of their home fixtures and 56% of Real Madrid’s away games have featured at least three goals.
Adams has been one of the main reasons why Sevilla have been able to pull themselves towards safety. The Nigerian has scored the winner in his team’s last two fixtures. That has taken his tally to 10 goals in 30 league appearances.
Having only started 20 times, that’s a very respectable return for a struggling side. Adams should be the home team’s main goal threat this weekend, and he is at value in the anytime goalscorer market.