A poor defensive baseline indicates a long season for Hull. Meanwhile, Coventry and Ipswich appear to have stronger foundations.
| Premier League relegation selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| All promoted clubs to be relegated | 3.75 |
| Hull to finish bottom | 1.90 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Promoted clubs must adapt quickly
The relegation betting market is understandable to a certain extent. Promoted clubs’ survival depends on bridging gaps in quality, depth, and margin for error. However, this season’s new arrivals will operate on different baselines in the Premier League.
Hull’s regular-season Championship numbers were the weakest of the trio. While they were efficient up front, their xGA of 80.1 was the second-highest in the division, behind only Sheffield Wednesday. Conceding an average of 1.65 goals per game suggests there is work to be done.
This is why the relegation argument carries more weight when focused specifically on Hull. Coventry and Ipswich may still find the step up severe, but their promotion campaigns offered a better balance between attack and control than Hull.
The increased quality and resources across the Premier League could make life difficult for all three newcomers this season.However, history shows promoted sides can also exceed expectations. The question is which of the three is likely to pull off a wonder campaign like Sunderland did last term.
Hull face a Premier League survival battle after promotion
Hull supporters may not want to hear it, but the Tigers are the clearest relegation candidate of the three. Coming up through the play-offs was an achievement, but their regular-season defensive numbers remain a serious concern. Their promotion defied all the underlying defensive metrics, which suggested they should’ve been in the bottom half of the table.
Conceding 66 goals in the Championship is one thing. Doing so alongside just 11 clean sheets and conceding in 35 of 46 matches is even worse. Hull also oversaw 30 ‘Both Teams to Score - Yes’ matches, the highest among the promoted trio. This highlights how frequently their matches became open.
Sergej Jakirovic’s men recorded an xGA (expected goals against) of 82.69, the second-biggest total in the Championship. However, they were better going forward, averaging 1.28 xG per 90. Those weaknesses can be masked in the second tier, but they are far less forgiving at Premier League level.
Hull’s summer context only highlights that concern. Financial pressure forced them to recoup £6million in player sales at the start of the transfer window to satisfy Financial Fair Play requirements.
Notably, Hull's number one goalkeeper, Ivor Pandur, moved to Rangers for a £6million fee. Jack Butland also moved from Rangers to Hull to fill Pandur's void for an undisclosed fee.Although promotion helps, it doesn’t automatically erase the challenge of building a top-flight-ready squad.
Considering all of these factors, Hull appear to be the most logical relegation candidate among the promoted teams.
Coventry hope to buck the trend
Coventry stand apart from any general argument against newly-promoted teams in the relegation market. Their Championship record was comfortably the strongest of the three. Their title win was not reliant on a brief surge in form or one player carrying the attacking burden. While there is a severe lack of Premier League experience in the squad, head coach Frank Lampard has it on both sides of the touchline.
A return of 97 goals scored and 45 conceded across 46 matches points to a side with both attacking punch and defensive structure. Coventry kept 17 clean sheets and conceded in 29 league games, which is a far healthier defensive base than any of the other two.
In forward areas, Coventry’s 87.32 xG (expected goals) surpassed all other competing Championship sides. That figure was 6.92 xG higher than Southampton’s (80.40 xG), who were the next most efficient side according to the underlying offensive data.
Coventry’s attacking strength is one of the main reasons they should not be compared with some of the weaker promoted teams from recent seasons. Five Coventry players reached double figures for league goals last season. Haji Wright led the way with 17.
Lampard’s side also have qualities that could make them effective away from home compared with many newly-promoted teams. Coventry combine possession with quick transitions. Despite the positive outlook, bookmakers suggest they have a 62% chance of being relegated.
Ipswich must navigate another transition
Ipswich sit somewhere between the other two. They return to the Premier League after just one season away. Last season’s statistics were solid enough to avoid being grouped with Hull, but their defining issue is something different. Kieran McKenna stepped down after leading Ipswich back to the top flight, with Gary O’Neil arriving for the new Premier League campaign.
A change like that naturally brings uncertainty, especially for a club trying to establish themselves quickly after promotion. Still, O’Neil has previously kept both Bournemouth and Wolves at this level in his first seasons with those clubs. During his Premier League tenure, O’Neil oversaw triumphs over Chelsea, Manchester City, and Tottenham Hotspur.
Ipswich’s Championship output also gives him something to work with. They scored 80 goals, behind only Southampton (84) and Coventry (97). The Tractor Boys conceded 47 goals in total, and kept 17 clean sheets across 46 matches. Ipswich finished the season with a 46.57 xGA (expected goals against), averaging 1.01 xGA per 90. That was the best underlying defensive return in the Championship in 2025/26. On that evidence alone, they are far better prepared than Hull.
However, their previous Premier League campaign raises concerns, as they conceded 82 goals and kept only two clean sheets in 38 matches. For that reason, we can’t rush to frame Ipswich as safe, but we’re not brandishing them as automatic candidates for the drop. Despite bookmakers giving Ipswich the biggest odds of all three teams, they still share a 60% chance of going down with Coventry.
What could alter the outlook for the promoted sides
Hull’s outlook on the upcoming campaign will improve if they find a way to strengthen quickly despite the financial squeeze. Currently, their rear guard is the weakest of the three by some distance, which could cost them dearly.
Coventry’s case rests on whether their varied attacking identity still functions against stronger and superior opposition. If Lampard can motivate them for the season, they will have a better chance at survival than the market initially suggests.
Ipswich are the hardest team to pin down before a ball is kicked. O’Neil’s survival experience gives them a real chance of settling faster than expected. However, a managerial handover this close to a Premier League return is still a serious variable and can easily go the other way.