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What Real Madrid’s win tells us about betting on Barcelona

What Real Madrid’s win tells us about betting on Barcelona

La Liga’s destiny could shift drastically if other teams can adopt and apply Real Madrid’s tactics against Barcelona at the Camp Nou. 

MarketSelectionOdds
Barcelona vs AlavesBTTS - Yes1.80
Racing Santander vs Real MadridYan Diomande to score2.20
La Liga outright winnerReal Madrid4.00

Odds courtesy of BET99. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

The El Clasico aftermath 

Barcelona started this La Liga season incredibly well, going unbeaten and winning their first nine matches. 

El Clasico was always going to be a true test for Hansi Flick’s men, one that they ultimately couldn’t overcome. Real Madrid put in one of their best performances of the season, as they walked away with all three points from the Camp Nou. 

The result affected the title race and also sent a message to Barcelona, who had gone 23 home league matches without a defeat.

Real Madrid’s tactical approach could also influence how other teams prepare to face the Catalan club in the coming weeks. The victory strengthened the case for Florentino Pérez’s decision to bring José Mourinho back to the Real Madrid dugout.

The Special One put in another masterclass, exploiting the space behind Barcelona’s defence by using speedy midfielders. Kylian Mbappe was a standout performer in the game, scoring a brace to help his team claw back into the La Liga title race. Yan Diomande also deserves a special mention, as Los Blancos didn’t feel the absence of Vinicius Junior in that match. 

However, one result doesn’t take away Barcelona’s strengths and their dominance domestically. It rather gives other clubs the idea of using deeper midfield runs to open the Catalans’ defence. Real Madrid exploited these spaces through Eduardo Camavinga’s forward runs, but it is to be seen whether other teams can use the same tactic against Barcelona.

Barcelona’s defensive issues offer hope for Alaves 

According to Michael Cox’s analysis in The Athletic, Real Madrid advanced along the flanks before targeting the spaces behind Barcelona’s full-backs.

He identified Xavi Espart’s injury and the subsequent defensive reshuffle as factors that had disrupted Barcelona’s balance. Flick disagreed that his defenders had lost confidence, but pointed to the returns of Andreas Christensen and Jules Koundé as potential boosts. 

Real had the quality in their ranks to exploit the Spanish champions. Other La Liga outfits may struggle to adopt the same approach. The betting appeal is in backing the hosts to retain their attacking threat without relying on them to keep a clean sheet.

Flick’s men have kept clean sheets in just 40% of their league matches this season. They’ve shut out the opposition in just two of their recent 10 outings in all competitions, shipping an average of 1.5 goals per 90. Counting on Alaves to breach the hosts’ defence is crucial for the BTTS market. 

Last season’s corresponding fixture finished 3-1 to Barca, while Alaves were able to beat the champions 1-0 at home last season. That offers more support for backing the visitors to hit the back of the net. Both teams have scored in 60% of Barcelona’s league matches this season. Additionally, Alaves have an xG (expected goals) of 12.80, from which they’ve scored 14. This puts them 11th in the division, which offers further encouragement. 

Real’s path is open again

Yan Diomande stepped up in Vini Junior’s absence. He delivered three goals and three assists in his last five appearances for Real Madrid. 

His dribbling ability has been a valuable asset, as he recorded four successful dribbles last week, more than any other player on the pitch. He did end up missing a big chance and blanked at the Camp Nou, but he’s given Mourinho something to think about ahead of Racing Santander. 

Diomande’s place isn’t guaranteed, but the coach made it clear that there aren’t any certain starters in his team, including Vinicius Junior. Considering those factors, it may be worth backing the Ivorian teenager to get on the scoresheet this week away to Racing. 

Real Madrid also present an interesting option in the longer-term La Liga title market. A three-point deficit is manageable, and five successive wins provide a stronger basis for backing Mourinho’s side than El Clasico alone. However, as Mourinho alluded to, they need to continue collecting points to maintain the pressure on Barcelona. 

Backing Real for the title now makes sense because of the sheer value they offer. That gap can easily be closed in the reverse fixture at the Santiago Bernabeu later in the season. It’s up to Los Blancos to turn that morale-boosting victory into sustained pressure for the title.