If Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish in their current fifth place, the team in sixth would qualify for the Champions League.
| Premier League Top Six | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brighton | 2.00 |
| Chelsea | 3.50 |
| Bournemouth | 7.00 |
| Brentford | 10.00 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Brighton
Villa currently hold an eight-point lead on sixth-placed Brighton. The top five can look forward to Champions League football next season. However, the race for a potential extra place in Europe’s elite competition is intensifying.
The Seagulls are certainly in pole position. However, they will need to finish the campaign strongly, given that five teams below them are within three points.
Brighton possess the advantage over their rivals regarding form and momentum. Fabian Hurzeler’s team have won six of their last eight matches. They performed strongly at both ends of the field during that period, scoring 1.73 goals per game on average, and conceding just 0.63.
Brighton also have a favourable run of fixtures. Their next opponents are Newcastle, who have lost their last five competitive games. They host bottom club Wolves after that fixture.
Hurzeler’s men play against Leeds and Manchester United in their final two matches. There is a strong possibility neither opponent will have anything to play for. That suggests Brighton are worth backing to finish in the top six with an implied probability of 50%.
Bournemouth
Just one point behind Brighton, Bournemouth are also firmly in the race for a top-six finish. Their form was expected to decline significantly following Antoine Semenyo's departure in January. However, the Cherries have not lost in the Premier League since selling their star player to Manchester City.
They’ve recorded 55.8 xG this season, which is the fifth-best record in the division. Andoni Iraola has performed excellently as manager, but he recently confirmed he will depart from the club in the summer.
Bournemouth have taken four points from their two games since that decision was announced. This suggests the Dorset club are not severely impacted in the short term by their manager’s imminent departure.
However, they have drawn six of their last eight matches. With numerous teams in this race, they will need to win at least three of their final four games.
Additionally, title-chasing Manchester City are set to visit the Vitality Stadium. This match won’t be easy. Their tendency to draw rather than win suggests they will fall short in at least one other match.
Chelsea
While they are currently a point below Bournemouth, Chelsea are the second favourites in the battle for sixth place. That’s a reflection of the quality they have in their squad. It also accounts for a potential turnaround now that Liam Rosenior has been sacked.
Rosenior lost all of his final five league fixtures to nil. The Blues are the only Premier League club that have failed to secure a point over their past five games.
They did beat Leeds 1-0 in the FA Cup semi-finals last weekend. Interim manager Calum McFarlane received a positive reaction from a group of players that had become disillusioned with the previous regime. However, it still was not entirely convincing, with the Blues only creating 0.39 xG.
Whether the inexperienced McFarlane can continue to secure results is doubtful. Chelsea still have to visit Anfield. They also have to play Nottingham Forest and Tottenham, who are both fighting to avoid relegation.
The upcoming FA Cup final against Manchester City will be another potential distraction. Overall, Chelsea aren’t worth backing to make the top six.
Brentford
While the likes of Fulham, Everton, and Sunderland could mathematically finish sixth, Brentford are the most likely of the other candidates. They are only two points behind Brighton with four games remaining.
Keith Andrews has enjoyed a successful first season as a Premier League manager. With home games against West Ham and Crystal Palace approaching, they have opportunities to secure more victories.
However, there are numerous reasons why the Bees are not worth backing, even at longer odds. Firstly, they’re on a seven-game winless run across all competitions. While they’ve drawn six of those matches, they required better results to sustain their top-six challenge.
They performed strongly in an even game against Manchester United on Monday at Old Trafford. However, a 2-1 defeat was a further setback.
The London club also still have to travel to both Manchester City and Liverpool. That suggests around 54 or 55 points will be their maximum total. That is highly unlikely to be enough for a sixth-place finish.